We continue our daily look at factors affecting
currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange
rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to
maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.
Investment market volatility and currency exchange
remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global
influencing territory. In conjunction
with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats
with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.
Sterling lost ground on Monday morning after a weaker
than expected data from the UK services sector highlighted the fragility of the
country's economic recovery and prompted investors to take profits on the
pound's recent rally and sell them off.
The CIPS/Markit services PMI activity index fell to
54.4 in June from 55.4 in May due to subdued new business and a record monthly
drop in confidence. That was weaker than forecasts and the lowest level since
August 2009.
By 2.00pm, sterling had fallen 0.6% to the day's low
of $1.5100, with bids around that level seen supporting the pair, traders said
liquidity was thin as US markets were closed on Monday for a public holiday.
The pound had hit a two-month high of $1.5230 on Friday after a depressing drop
in US Non farms payroll numbers.
Many in the market expect sterling to stay
underpinned, but some technical analysts said the pound may meet resistance
around $1.5345, the 50% retracement of its slide to $1.4230 from $1.6460
between January and May this year.
The pound also lost some ground against the euro,
falling to a session low of €1.2051.
The euro itself remained fairly range bound against
the dollar after last week’s 4 cent rise, hitting a high of $1.2545 and not
dropping below the psychological barrier of $1.25.
Sterling rallied 3% versus the dollar last month,
heartened by the new UK government's plan to reduce its deficit after it
announced the tightest budget in decades. That prompted a drop in bets that the
pound would fall any further.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
showed speculators cut short positions for the third straight week in the week
ended June 29, roughly half from early June.
Meanwhile, British academic Martin Weale was appointed
as a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, the UK Treasury
said on Monday. Weale will replace Kate Barker and take up his position in time for the
central bank's August policy meeting. Economists said Weale's track record as the head of
the National Institute of Economic and Social Research placed him towards the middle of the
hawk-dove spectrum, suggesting his appointment was unlikely to significantly
shift the bank's monetary policy debate.
The BoE holds a policy meeting on Thursday, where it
is expected to keep interest rates steady and its target on quantitative easing
unchanged. There are no data releases in the UK of any particular importance so the markets are likely
to turn their eyes to Spain and their new funding systems.
There might be a shift in interests now as many
investors see Europe as having stopped tripping over itself and the focus now
moves to the US. Over the last week the data releases have been poor and
comments out of China last night suggest they are less worried about Europe but will be keeping a close eye on the US.
Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people
considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for
Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers
to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments,
currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’
climates. This with the re-assurance
and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools to avoid
the offshore casino.
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