Major

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

N THE UK

·         Policy makers in the UK have been accused of not doing enough to promote competition in banking and nurture alternative sources of finance for small businesses.  As rates remain low and inflation is likely to continue to slow BoE Policy maker Adam Posen has pointed the finger saying that banks and policy makers are still risk averse and reluctant.

·         UK Purchasing Managers Index suggested a slight improvement in manufacturing, posting a figure of 52.1 versus expectations of 50.1 which resulted in GBP capitalising on a move higher against the dollar to $1.5857 and recovering back above €1.20 against the euro.

·         Having broken through a level of resistance at $1.5770 the pound moved to its highest level against the greenback since November of 2011.  Focus remains to the upside despite short term risk of a slight correction lower.

·         GBP/JPY is considered to have found a floor following a drop off in sterling during the month of January; the battle between these two safe havens seems to have changed direction and traders feel the pounds attack on key resistance level of 121 could pave the way for further gains. 

ELSEWHERE

·         Despite coming under increased pressure to join the bond swap being negotiated with Greece, the ECB remains coy over how it will help the country cut its debt burden. The Greek Government has until 20th March to reach a deal and release the second EU bailout.

·         Polish Finance Minister Jan Vincent Rostowski argues that factors such as the absorption of EU structural funds and recent measures undertaken by the ECB have stabilised conditions in the European environment; a feint voice against stiff criticism of German and French leaders.

·         All major currencies are trading higher against USD following better than expected PMI figures from China and Europe and the lower than expected figures for US ADP non-farm employment and PMI.

·         Switzerland posted retail sales a percent below expectations of 1.6%, but December saw a 21% rise in exports. Despite the offsetting effect of this information CHF lost value against GBP, EUR , USD and AUD and this morning’s worse than expected trade balance of 2.07B leaves the Franc open to further movement lower.

·         Australia posted a favourable trade balance (surplus) at $1.71B, exceeding expectations of 1.22B and bringing GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD to 1.4754 and 1.2280 respectively on the back of a boom in mining exports.

·         Japan posted a 15% figure for its year on year monetary base.  The Japanese bought the highest number of foreign bonds since September in the week ending 27th January, suggesting the BoJ are keen to hedge  against the risk of global inflation.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

·         Construction data for the UK is released later this morning, and the markets will be looking to asses comments expected from MPC member Posen at approximately 2.00pm.

·         US unemployment figures, forecasted for 373k, will be complimented by testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• After yesterday morning being dominated by high and medium tier data, today sees only one release from the UK in the form of our CBI Realised sales figures, which shows the sales volume for the month and is forecast to show a slowdown in consumer buying.
• Yesterday saw erratic price movement as GBP/USD moved between the prices of $1.5618 and $1.5529, however overnight saw a volatile jump as cable breached the $1.56 level and posted a high of $1.5677, finding support around the $1.5650 level and resistance of the physiological level of $1.57.
• Yesterday saw the release of the UK MPC meeting minutes, the MPC voted 9 to nil in favour of keeping the asset purchasing program on hold, despite some other data in the month that pointed towards growth. There were comments in the minutes that suggest the door is still open for further QE, however not until the remainder of the program has been completed.
• UK Preliminary GDP for Q4 last year was released yesterday and showed that the UK economy slowed and contracted by -0.2% against the forecast -0.1% as the UK experiences the slowest recovery from a recession since the 1930’s. Fuelling speculation that the UK could be heading towards a double dip recession, so eyes will be firmly on economic data being released. Remembering, two consecutive negative GDP quarter readings mean that the nation is in a recession once more. 

ELSEWHERE

• Yesterday evening the FOMC statement released their statement which fuelled volatile trading as the Fed, left the door wide open for ultra-loose monetary policy for at least the next three years, releasing comments such as “monetary policy will remain highly accommodative” signalling that they are open to further their asset purchasing program. They also predicted that the interest rates for the nation will remain low until 2014 and set a formal inflation objective target as 2%, previous prediction for interest rates was that they would remain low until mid 2013, so the window is widening. 
• On release of the FOMC statement EUR/USD climbed over 1 cent and GBP/USD held a rally of just under a cent, as investor confidence in the dollar suffered, however this news is positive for equities and investors. This could suggest that the market was not expecting the openness of the FED to fire up the printing presses once more in a bid to support the economy.
• The euro gains against the USD however could be limited if Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, were to make further comments about the ECB’s own commitment to low interest rates. There are views in the market place that the ECB could cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points in the coming months.
• US Pending Home Sales data released yesterday missed expectations massively, posting a figure of -3.5% against a forecast reading of -0.6% showing that the number of pending sales contracts on homes are slowing down in the nation.
• The Japanese Yen weakened against all major currencies yesterday due to weaker Japanese data and stronger risk appetite. Japans first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years asks the question how long can the nation rely on its exports to help finance its huge public debt, without the need to turn to foreign investors.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, decides to keep rates on hold at 2.50%.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• German Consumer Confidence figure released this morning shows better than expected results posting a figure of 5.9 against an expected 5.6.
• US Core Durable Goods month on month figures are released today expecting to post a gain of 0.9%.
• US Unemployment Claims are being released today at 13.30pm expecting to post a figure of 371K.
• New Home Sales in the US being released at 3pm to show a slight increase from last month’s figure of 315k to 321k. 
• Inflationary data being released overnight from Japan both of which are expected to show declines. 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• The Bank of England are expected to keep interest rates on hold this afternoon at the monthly interest rate decision meeting and will maintain its £275bn bond purchase target.
• UK services and manufacturing gauges unexpectedly rose last month, showing the economy gained a little strength (but only modestly); however the BoE has indicated that the economy may in fact be stagnating as recovery is impaired by the European debt crisis.  Sterling opens trading today against the euro at €1.2036, nearly a cent down on the start of the week.
• Debt worries in the Eurozone weighed on the London markets yesterday as disappointing economic data dampened the mood and pulled the FTSE lower.
• Today sees an illustration of how Britain can be affected by the Eurozone crisis as RBS announces 3,500 jobs losses.  The European crisis has forced securities firms to scale back or close divisions that trade European equities – and the UK and The City is acutely affected by this shift. 

ELSEWHERE

• Although showing growth of approximately 3% over the year, the German economy worried the markets by posting a contraction of 0.25% in an unofficial release.  Schulz, a senior economist at Berenburg, sees a ‘25% chance of the euro crisis remaining out of control longer…spiralling out of control with a series of sovereign and bank defaults’.  In such a scenario, Germany would enter a major recession.
• The euro suffered from heightened risk aversion as some investors may expect the euro to drop should the union break up.
• Rumours have surfaced that the French government had be notified by S&P that a downgrade of its AAA status is looming.
• Despite morning gains against both GBP and USD, the euro ended the day at $1.2698 against the greenback, with losses compounded on the back of EU growth forecasts.
• USD saw a definite flight to safety in light of these concerns over a European recession.  USD moved to a 16 month high against euro, whilst cable fell to a three month low of $1.5308.
• Officials from the Fed reserve are undecided on the need for further easing. Sung Won Sohn, former chief economist at Wells Fargo suggests that “ despite recent signs of improvement, Fed officials are very vigilant about the economic recovery continuing and improving,”
• Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days, while gold rose as data showed slowing demand for Japan’s exports. 
• Oil rallied 0.5% to $101.38 a barrel, while natural gas slumped to a 28-month low – easing the pinch on domestic costs a touch.
• The New Zealand dollar weakened against 15 major currencies but still remains at an inflated value of 1.9228 against the pound  - this slide is largely due to a drop in the value of commodity prices according to ANZ bank. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Today both the ECB and MPC deliver their monthly rate decisions.
• The United States release both core and non-core retail sales data at 13:30, with both expected to have increase by 0.1%.
• US Unemployment Claims are also expected to climb.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.