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At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• The Bank of England as expected left rates unchanged at 0.5% and Quantitative easing at 275bn creating some relief and helping sterling climb to $1.5408 early this morning from the three month low of $1.5279 hit yesterday.
• Most traders still expect the Bank of England to extend quantitative easing at the February meeting, which is acting as black cloud over the pound’s head, any comments suggesting this in the coming weeks will weaken sterling.
• Sterling tumbles against the euro as successful Spanish and Italian debt auctions bring some relief to the euro, sterling has already fallen to a low of €1.1936 this morning
• UK Industrial output falls 0.6% in November, heightening concerns over the strength of the economy.
• George Osborne debates on whether Scotland should use the pound or the euro if there were to become independent. Alex Salmond’s says Scotland would initially use the pound and enter into the euro at a later date. Osborne thinks this plan will fall apart.
• Sterling continues to fall against the AUD, already hitting a low of AU$ 1.4837 this morning 
• UK Producer Price Index reveal slightly worse than expected figures, all components fell however this has not affected the pound so far.

ELSEWHERE

• Spanish and Italian debt Auction go better than expected yesterday, Spain sold double the targeted amount and raised €10bn whilst Italy raised €12bn. In response, the euro strengthen across the board with EURUSD moving back above $1.28, hitting a high of $1.2878 this morning.
• Following the auction, the benchmark Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields fell respectively to 6.55% and 6.08% in the secondary markets
• In their monetary policy meeting, the ECB as expected kept rates unchanged at 1%, Draghi’s comments helped the euro as he indicated there were signs of stabilisation in the Eurozone and suggested no immediate plans for a further rate cut.
• China’s foreign exchange reserves drop for the first time since 1998, falling to $3.18 trillion on Dec 31 from $3.2 trillion Sept 30 as foreign investments moderate, trade surplus narrow and Europe’s crisis spurred investors to sell emerging market assets.
• The US dollar was hit by the European bond auctions going better than expected as investors fly out of the safe haven and move to riskier assets.
• US unemployment benefits jumped last week rising to a six week high of nearly 400,000 jobs
• US retail sales continued their upward crawl in December, rising 0.1% in the month according to initial estimates 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• European trade balance for November is released at 10.00am.
• US trade balance is due out at 1.30pm and is expected to come in at $43.47bn which is lower than the previous figure of $45bn
• At 2.55pm, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released, the recent good run of US data is expected to have push sentiment up to 71.5 from 69.9.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• Although data recorded a drop in UK retail sales of 0.4% in November, they posted a three month gain of 0.7%, the strongest such gain since August 2010. Across the day, GBP enjoyed a rally to a high of $1.5529 against the dollar belying the ongoing weakness perceived in the British economy.
• While private consumption continues to stall, the BoE will surely see a growing case for expansion of its monetary policy and the minutes of the most recent policy meeting, due out next week, suggest a growing pessimism regarding the economy, expectation for further QE will surely increase.
• Christian Noyer, head of Bank of France, caused a stir by claiming that the UK should have its credit rating cut from the prestigious AAA before France given the relative deficits, debt, inflation and growth.
• GBP/EUR fell from highs of 1.1939 to 1.1868 and back before consolidating between 1.1910 and 1.1920 where it seemed to settle throughout US and Asian trading. 

ELSEWHERE

• Despite the ECB’s monthly report insisting the euro is still under considerable pressure, Spain’s treasury sold €6bn medium and long term bonds, surpassing a target of €3.5bn while 5yr bonds were at an average yield of 4.02%, down sharply from 5.27% last month and 10 year bonds boasted a yield of 5.54% compared to 6.97% last month. Importantly, some consider the stark improvement an indication of ECB involvement in the secondary bond market and therefore somewhat artificial.
• SNB announced their decision to maintain a EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000 with ‘utmost determination’. The intention to maintain the peg which was established on September 6 saw the franc rise 1.2% against the euro to CHF 1.2229 – a six week high.
• This was compounded by the SNB also deciding to keep its key refinancing rate close to zero while Swiss industrial production data recorded a greater than expected decline in the third quarter.
• Manufacturing activity across the Eurozone posted a surprise increase for December although the figure, 46.9, is the fourth consecutive month where the published figure has come in at less than 50, which shows growth or contraction.
• Consumer price inflation remained unchanged at an annualised rate of 3%, in line with consensus.
• Further developments to the European crisis resolutions saw Russia commit EUR10B to the IMF but a dent to plans for longer-term refinancing operations came as bankers seem unlikely to buy more sovereign debt using the 3 year loans available from the ECB from next week
• EFSF have been accused, in some circles, of irresponsibility as the draft prospectus for the latest bailout instruments cites “Risks arising from a Reference Sovereign ceasing to use the euro as its lawful currency...or the cessation of the euro as a lawful currency” as part of four pages of potential risks.
• A short term correction in the major currencies saw the greenback cede gains, which reached as low as $1.2955 against the euro, as part of a rally which will hinge on Friday’s economic docket.
• Data could bolster the dollar with the headline reading for US inflation anticipated match the previous such release. Thursday’s Producer Price Inflation datum in the US matched expectation at a 0.3% rise. Such stubborn price growth and a steady increase in economic activity might hinder expectation for the FOMC to undertake another large scale asset purchase program.
• Thursday’s other data releases saw initial jobless claims fall to a three year low of 366k, according to the Department of Labor, despite predictions of a climb to 390k. The New York and Philly Fed indices of manufacturing conditions climbed to 9.5, a seven month high, and 10.3, double the expected figure, respectively. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• In a relatively quiet day for data, new ECB President Mario Draghi takes part in a panel discussion at the Banca d’Italia, in Rome.
• Eurozone Trade Balance data is released at 10.00.
• US Consumer Price Index is released at 1.30pm and expected to show inflation has remained at 3.5% annually.
• US Fed members Evans and Fisher are due to speak in Fiesole and Austin respectively this evening.

Have a great weekend.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

There was a quiet day on the data front yesterday with analysts stating a lack of UK data meant the

markets were mainly driven by movements in risk appetite.

Sterling fell against a broadly stronger euro after French and German leaders promised to put a firm

plan in place to recapitalise Europe’s banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President

Nicolas Sarkozy offered no details of their plans but they pledged to do what was necessary to

support the banks, settle the Greek debt crisis and help growth within the euro zone, which resulted

in an increase to risk sentiment within the markets.

The pound fell from the early morning high of €1.1607 against the euro to end the session trading

near the low of €1.1453, a fall of over 1.4%.

Sterling performed better against a struggling dollar as it moved from the low of $1.5544 to end the

session trading near the high of $1.5683. This was mainly due to an advance in global stocks which

reduced demand for the greenback as a safe haven.

Sterling has recovered from the lows seen last Thursday after the Bank of England increased their

asset buying programme by £75 billion pounds a move which initially was seen as sterling negative

but now has been seen as a positive to stimulate the UK’s economy.

"Normally more QE would be negative for a currency, but given most of the major central banks are

contemplating more easing themselves, it's not weighing on the pound as much this time around,"

said Derks.

"The market is coming back to the view that a country taking affirmative steps to resolve its

problems is supportive for a currency," said the head of dealing for corporate and

institutional treasury at Investec.

IN THE UK

• Sterling fell sharply against a broadly stronger euro falling over 1.4% to end the session at a low of €1.1452.
• The pound gains against the dollar as investors move away from safe haven currencies and return to riskier assets reaching a session high of $1.5688.
• Analysts state that a lack of UK data meant the pounds moves were largely driven by swings in risk appetite.
• The negative sentiment towards the BoE’s shock increase to QE last Thursday is wearing off and is now seen as a positive to the pound.
• Bank of England policy member Martin Weale states on Sunday that there is still room for more QE, as Britain’s economy struggles in the face of fiscal austerity and the deepening on the euro zones debt crisis.

ELSEWHERE

• The euro performs well as Sarkosy and Merkel’s plans are digested, between them Germany and France promise to put a plan in place to recapitalise Europe’s banks, settle the Greek debt crisis and help growth in Europe.
• The details of this plan will not be released until the end of October.
• The euro rose by the largest daily gains in more than a year against the dollar moving from the low of 1.3392 to trade at the high of 1.3698 a movement of over 2.4%.
• France breathes a sigh of relief as Moody’s and S&P confirmed their AAA rating with stable outlook.
• Slovakia is the last member state of the EU left to vote on of the EFSF, their government meet today, most expects expect them to follow suit and vote for an approval of the new terms.
• UK media this morning report that Spain is unlikely to meet its deficit target, the Spanish economy is far too big to simply bailout and if this prediction is correct it will provide another much larger headache for European Finance Officials.
• Greek Finance Minister says Greek haircut more likely to be around 60% rather than the previously agreed level of 21% in July

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

• This morning UK Manufacturing Production figures are released expectations are to see an increase of 0.1% MoM the same rise seen in July.
• UK Industrial Production is also expected to increase to 0.4% MoM following Julys 0.2% fall, which could support the pound.
• In the US they release the budget balance data this evening at 7pm which is expected the see the US fed budget deficit move to $1.294trn for the 2011 fiscal year.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.