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At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• British Prime Minister David Cameron says that Britain will not ratify the Franco-German proposals to change the EU Treaty without safeguards for British interests and The City of London. 
• Following yesterday’s announcement that S&P have placed a further 15 of the 17 Eurozone states on a negative watch, including France and Germany, GBP/EUR moved to a rate of €1.1711. 
• In the lead up to the open of the European markets GBP/EUR trades at €1.1627 arguably on the back of support for planned changes to the EU Treaty for the United States.
• The British Retail Consortium indicate the early advent of sales on the British high street has contributed to a contraction in the pace of retail inflation.  Whilst Food price inflation remains on the up, other retail items saw a contraction by 0.1% to 2% for previous 2.1% posting.
• Josh Raymond of City Index asserts that major currency trading will remain largely headline driven until sentiment from Friday’s EU summit and minutes from BoE can be assessed fully.  GBP will benefit from a more or less coordinated effort to lower rates around the world coupled with protection of Britain’s AAA rating. 

ELSEWHERE

• The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) has also come under scrutiny from ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, who have warned that it could downgrade the AAA rating of the fund.
• Timothy Geithner, US Secretary of the Treasury, spoke yesterday of an emphasis on the importance of success in the EU talks, not only for the EU and US, but for the Global economy as a whole; overnight USD moved to a rate of $1.34 against EUR, but has slipped back to $1.343 following the European open.
• Analysts in Asia have warned of the immediate risk of contagion globally, and as a result many Asian economies have ‘trimmed’ their growth forecasts, but the area itself does see the potential for medium term growth on the back of an increase in demand with closure of a percentage of European export markets.
• Dutch heads of business have come out to urge EU political leaders to push forward urgently.  With over one third of their exports going to Southern European countries, fears voiced by The Netherlands place greater pressure on EU heads of state to satisfy the markets’ appetite for stability in the Eurozone.
• This morning the Secretary General of OPEC, speaking in Doha, said that he hoped the EU would not go ahead with a proposed ban on Iranian oil.  At present Iran supplies the EU with around 18% of its oil, or 450k barrels a day, and the Secretary General warns that this amount would be very hard to replace if sanctions come into place.
• Australia posts GDP figures in line with expectation at 1%, but below the 1.4% growth shown last quarter.  GBP/AUD moves from a rate of 1.5228 to 1.5182, and marginal risk appetite comes back to certain Far Eastern currencies; SGD strengthens against GBP slightly. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT) 

• 11.00am German Industrial Production figures are released.
• MBA Mortgage Applications is released at 12.00pm in the US
• In New Zealand at 8.00pm, the RBNZ release their interest rate decision. The markets aren’t expecting any change to the current 2.5%
• Japanese Trade Balance is released overnight.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK  

• British Prime Minister David Cameron says that Britain will not ratify the Franco-German proposals to change the EU Treaty without safeguards for British interests and The City of London. 
• Following yesterday’s announcement that S&P have placed a further 15 of the 17 Eurozone states on a negative watch, including France and Germany, GBP/EUR moved to a rate of €1.1711. 
• In the lead up to the open of the European markets GBP/EUR trades at €1.1627 arguably on the back of support for planned changes to the EU Treaty for the United States.
• The British Retail Consortium indicate the early advent of sales on the British high street has contributed to a contraction in the pace of retail inflation.  Whilst Food price inflation remains on the up, other retail items saw a contraction by 0.1% to 2% for previous 2.1% posting.
• Josh Raymond of City Index asserts that major currency trading will remain largely headline driven until sentiment from Friday’s EU summit and minutes from BoE can be assessed fully.  GBP will benefit from a more or less coordinated effort to lower rates around the world coupled with protection of Britain’s AAA rating. 

ELSEWHERE

• The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) has also come under scrutiny from ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, who have warned that it could downgrade the AAA rating of the fund.
• Timothy Geithner, US Secretary of the Treasury, spoke yesterday of an emphasis on the importance of success in the EU talks, not only for the EU and US, but for the Global economy as a whole; overnight USD moved to a rate of $1.34 against EUR, but has slipped back to $1.343 following the European open.
• Analysts in Asia have warned of the immediate risk of contagion globally, and as a result many Asian economies have ‘trimmed’ their growth forecasts, but the area itself does see the potential for medium term growth on the back of an increase in demand with closure of a percentage of European export markets.
• Dutch heads of business have come out to urge EU political leaders to push forward urgently.  With over one third of their exports going to Southern European countries, fears voiced by The Netherlands place greater pressure on EU heads of state to satisfy the markets’ appetite for stability in the Eurozone.
• This morning the Secretary General of OPEC, speaking in Doha, said that he hoped the EU would not go ahead with a proposed ban on Iranian oil.  At present Iran supplies the EU with around 18% of its oil, or 450k barrels a day, and the Secretary General warns that this amount would be very hard to replace if sanctions come into place.
• Australia posts GDP figures in line with expectation at 1%, but below the 1.4% growth shown last quarter.  GBP/AUD moves from a rate of 1.5228 to 1.5182, and marginal risk appetite comes back to certain Far Eastern currencies; SGD strengthens against GBP slightly. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• 11.00am German Industrial Production figures are released.
• MBA Mortgage Applications is released at 12.00pm in the US
• In New Zealand at 8.00pm, the RBNZ release their interest rate decision. The markets aren’t expecting any change to the current 2.5%
• Japanese Trade Balance is released overnight.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

We saw Sterling dip against the dollar on Tuesday as investors took profit on the previous

session's rally in risk assets, and it looked vulnerable to further selling after mixed economic

data released failed to alleviate concerns about poor UK economic fundamentals.

Manufacturing Output data for August released on Tuesday presented a mixed picture of UK

growth, with industrial output unexpectedly rising 0.2% on the month while

manufacturing output dropped 0.3%. Sterling showed little reaction immediately after

the data, but did post a trading low of $1.5602.

"All in all the data was a mixed bag, there was a small discrepancy between industrial

production and manufacturing. But overall the trend is still for lower production and that

should really not benefit the pound," said an analyst at Danske Markets.

The pound has rallied since hitting a 14-month low last week on news the Bank of England

would restart its asset purchase scheme, known as quantitative easing (QE), sooner than

expected to try and kick-start Britain's ailing economy.

But analysts said lacklustre economic data and comments by Bank of England policymaker David Miles

defending QE added to the impression UK monetary policy could remain extremely loose for

some time.

The Euro fell from its highs against the USD as Slovakian lawmakers prepared to vote on a

proposal to revalue the regions bailout package, however the Vote was postponed due to a

coalition partner SaS held back from the vote. The 17-nation Euro slumped even as a

European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank team approved

the next tranche of aid to Greece.

“We are seeing a bit of correction in the Euro after yesterday’s move up,” said a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. “There are some concerns about the Slovakian

vote. While the bottom line is that they will eventually approve it, it might be delayed, and

that creates more uncertainty.”

Across the pond was very quiet, as no major or mid-level data was released as traders

returned to the office after yesterday being a national bank holiday in the form of Columbus

Day.

Looking forward to today the major pieces of data are being released from the UK and the

US. The first comes from the UK in the form of the Claimant count of which is being released

at 9.30am which is then followed by the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 7.00pm where

the market will be paying close attention to the tones of the language used.

IN THE UK

• The pound falls against the dollar over the course of trading session falling from a high of $1.5664 to post a low of $1.5581.
• A mixed bag of data released from the UK in the morning showed Manufacturing output for the month of August missed expectations but Industrial production beat expectations.
• NEISR Flash GDP estimate released at 0.5% against a previous posted 0.4%.
• The negative sentiment towards the BoE’s shock increase to QE last Thursday is wearing off and is now seen as a positive to the pound.
• UK Claimant Count rises by 17,500, slightly better than the forecasted 23,900. On a less positive note, the ILO Unemployment Rate rises to 8.1%, showing business conditions in the UK remain bleak
• EU member Barrosa has been urging the UK to help in the second Greek bailout, so far the UK have stood their ground apart from the obligations through its IMF membership.

ELSEWHERE

• Greece gets their 6th tranche of bailout package confirmed from the ECB even though they will miss their 2011 targets and be in recession for longer.
• The Euro fell from highs of €1.1510 to post a daily low of €1.1435.
• Trichet makes a statement that the Eurozone debt contagion has become systemic and is a real risk for the region.
• Slovakia fails to reach agreement on the revised plans for EFSF due to one of the coalition partners, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) completely abstained from the vote.
• Canadian Housing Starts beats expectations to post a figure of 206k against an expected 176k originally forecast. 
• No economic data released from the US as they return to the office after Monday’s bank holiday. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

• Eurozone Industrial production to be released at 10am expected to post a figure of -0.8% against previous months reading of -0.9%.
• In the US they are due to release the FOMC minutes for the previous interest rate meeting 3 weeks ago, where the market will be paying attention to the tone of comments made.
• ECB’s Trichet address a conference at the AFME in London this evening at 7.30pm
• Minutes from Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting are released overnight.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.