Chairman

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

N THE UK

·         Policy makers in the UK have been accused of not doing enough to promote competition in banking and nurture alternative sources of finance for small businesses.  As rates remain low and inflation is likely to continue to slow BoE Policy maker Adam Posen has pointed the finger saying that banks and policy makers are still risk averse and reluctant.

·         UK Purchasing Managers Index suggested a slight improvement in manufacturing, posting a figure of 52.1 versus expectations of 50.1 which resulted in GBP capitalising on a move higher against the dollar to $1.5857 and recovering back above €1.20 against the euro.

·         Having broken through a level of resistance at $1.5770 the pound moved to its highest level against the greenback since November of 2011.  Focus remains to the upside despite short term risk of a slight correction lower.

·         GBP/JPY is considered to have found a floor following a drop off in sterling during the month of January; the battle between these two safe havens seems to have changed direction and traders feel the pounds attack on key resistance level of 121 could pave the way for further gains. 

ELSEWHERE

·         Despite coming under increased pressure to join the bond swap being negotiated with Greece, the ECB remains coy over how it will help the country cut its debt burden. The Greek Government has until 20th March to reach a deal and release the second EU bailout.

·         Polish Finance Minister Jan Vincent Rostowski argues that factors such as the absorption of EU structural funds and recent measures undertaken by the ECB have stabilised conditions in the European environment; a feint voice against stiff criticism of German and French leaders.

·         All major currencies are trading higher against USD following better than expected PMI figures from China and Europe and the lower than expected figures for US ADP non-farm employment and PMI.

·         Switzerland posted retail sales a percent below expectations of 1.6%, but December saw a 21% rise in exports. Despite the offsetting effect of this information CHF lost value against GBP, EUR , USD and AUD and this morning’s worse than expected trade balance of 2.07B leaves the Franc open to further movement lower.

·         Australia posted a favourable trade balance (surplus) at $1.71B, exceeding expectations of 1.22B and bringing GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD to 1.4754 and 1.2280 respectively on the back of a boom in mining exports.

·         Japan posted a 15% figure for its year on year monetary base.  The Japanese bought the highest number of foreign bonds since September in the week ending 27th January, suggesting the BoJ are keen to hedge  against the risk of global inflation.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

·         Construction data for the UK is released later this morning, and the markets will be looking to asses comments expected from MPC member Posen at approximately 2.00pm.

·         US unemployment figures, forecasted for 373k, will be complimented by testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Tuesday saw sterling fall to its lowest level in 13 months against the dollar and came under

attack against the euro, after the release of weak UK construction data added further

speculation that the Bank of England may be pushed further towards more quantitative

easing.

The pound also came under pressure along with other riskier assets and higher yielding

currencies as increasing problems with growth funding weighed down on the banking sector

with some European banks under intense selling pressure due to the exposure to the Greek

debt crisis.

The UK Construction headline activity index fell sharply to 50.1 in September from 52.6 in

August, its lowest reading in 10 months and weaker than forecasts of a 51.5 drop. Sterling

hit a low of 1.5339 against the ever buoyant dollar, not far from its recent low of 1.5326

which was its lowest level since early September 2010.

“A break below the 1.5320/25 level should see some more sell-stops being triggered

dragging it lower” said a forex trader at ETX capital. “Sterling is looking

very heavy going into the Bank of England decision on Thursday”

Earlier in the morning some traders were saying there was an interest in buying sterling at

the 1.5400/10 from Eastern European names and Sian sovereigns. Sentiment towards

sterling has taken a down turn in recent weeks on expectations more QE may be needed to

revive the flagging economy. Another round would flood the market with the UK currency,

reducing its demand.

Late in afternoon trading we saw the Euro strengthen across the board as Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben Bernanke warned of continued strain on the U.S economy and noted the

negative impact of elevated volatility and risk aversion in the financial market during

testimony before a joint committee of Congress. As a result of these comments we saw

GBP/EUR fall to hit a low of 1.1575, and EUR/USD rally 1.33.

IN THE UK

• GBP/USD falls to a near 13 month low, hitting a low of 1.5339 but recovers in the afternoon trading above the $1.5400 level
• UK Construction PMI falls sharply to 50.1 in September much lower than the 51.5 drop forecasted and disappoints the markets after Monday’s surprise rise in Manufacturing.
• After the release of weak UK construction data, renewed speculation of further QE, causes sterling to fall across the board
• GBP/EUR moves from 1.1717 hit overnight to fall a low of 1.1565.
• UK PMI Services just released shows another surprise rise, 52.9 instead of the expected fall to 50.7, sterling moves up off session lows to $1.5447 and €1.1617
• Final print of UK Q2 GDP reports an downwards revision to 0.1% from the previously released 0.2%

ELSEWHERE

• USD falls across the board after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech last night, he warns congress of more sluggish jobs data ahead, causing EUR/USD to hit 1.33
• US factory orders dip 0.2% in August
• Eurozone producer prices fall 0.1% in August
• EUR/CHF spikes above 1.22, its highest level in almost 2 weeks, there is talk circulating that the SNB may raise the EURCHF lower limit to 1.3000
• Italy downgraded by Moody’s by 3 notches, follows S+P’s downgrade last month, this has little effect on euro strength.
• European Finance Minister says that Eurozone nations intend to support their banks as current events show the danger of banking sector troubles escalating. Belgium Prime Minister says that investors and savers need not to worry as no one will lose a single cent over the Dexia problems.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

• Eurozone GDP is released at 10.00am, the previous release was 2.5%
• Also at 10.00am Eurozone retail sales are released, expected to fall in August to -0.2%
• At 1.15pm ADP Employment Change is released in the US, will provide investors with a idea of what Friday’s more important Nonfarm Payrolls might be look like. A fall to 75k is expected from 91k last month.
• 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing figures are released.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Tuesday was a quiet day on the data front but sterling managed to break out of a nasty

downtrend which had seen world markets tank as the US dollar strengthened.

Problems in the Eurozone with their debt crisis increased fears in the marketplace which

went into risk aversion mode. “Operation Twist” by the US Fed also helped increase short term

demand for the US dollar.

After developments over the weekend and early this week there seems to be light at the end

of the tunnel for Greece and the Euro debt crisis, markets have flipped to risk-taking mode

and are looking to take back some of the last weeks’ losses. The pound is poised to receive

the benefit of some of that risk appetite despite the economic environment in the UK.

The UK economy has defied Central bankers and finance officials who have been wrong for

the past two years. Inflation has increased in the UK and the Bank of England’s belief that it would subside has not happened yet. The Bank of England haven’t done anything to combat inflation because an interest rate hike is dangerous with a weak economy.

The Bank of England’s stance has changed recently, reporting the economy is seriously slowing down and could require further monetary easing. Fortunately, the figures don’t quite warrant

intervention yet but it is on the cards if the economy doesn’t pick up.

If the Euro debt crisis is partially responsible for the decline in the growth of the global economy, then it stands to reason that if a solution can be found, the UK economy and the pound should see gains.

New figures show that growth in the Eurozone's money supply, a key indicator of demand in

the economy, rose again in August. The European Central Bank said the M3 indicator rose at

an annual rate of 2.8% last month, following a gain of 2.1% in July. The rise was bigger than

economists had expected.

The ECB regards the M3 figure as a key guide to inflation pressures and uses it to set interest

rates accordingly.

Across the pond, CB consumer confidence in the US rose less-than-expected last month.

Analysts had expected confidence to rise to 46.5 last month but in the report, the

Conference Board said that its index only rose to 45.4, from 45.2 in the preceding month.

In the UK, retail sales weakened at their fastest pace in 16 months during September.

According to the CBI distributive trades survey, 24% of retailers saw sales volumes up on the

year, while 39% reported a fall, giving a balance of -15% in September from -14% in August.

The CBI blamed the dip on a combination of low wage growth, high prices and rising

unemployment but said sales appeared to be stabilising. That said, stores expect little

improvement in October.

IN THE UK

• Very quiet on the data front, however after a low of 1.5524 against the US dollar, sterling managed to make headway and briefly hit a high of 1.57048 in the afternoon.
• Trade remained very choppy against the euro but within a relatively tight range, we saw a high of 1.1528 and a low of 1.1480
• The pound is expected to receive the benefit of some risk appetite despite the UK economy’s signs of weakness, on the back of seemingly “light at the end of the tunnel” for Greece and the Eurozone debt crisis.

ELSEWHERE

• Euro zone Money Supply (M3), rose by more than expected. It showed that it had risen at an annual rate of 2.8% last month, following a gain of 2.1% in July.
• The M3 figure is regarded by the ECB as a key guide to inflation pressures and uses it to set interest rates accordingly.
• Despite ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ divisions are emerging between EU members on the exact terms of the restructuring of Eurozone debt.
• European officials have a pop at US officials and asks them to keep their noses in their own business, The US has just as many problems as Europe. Trichet says Europe needs support not lectures.
• The German GfK showed at 5.2 points in September and is forecasting 5.2 points for October also, indicating despite rising fears of recession, in Germany the consumer climate should remain stable through the autumn
• Over in the United States, the CB Consumer Confidence rose to 45.4 from 45.2 in the preceding month, which was less than expected. Expectations were for a rise to 46.5 last month.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

• Busy day for US data starts with MBA mortgage approvals at 1.00pm, this gives an picture of how the housing market will perform in the coming months, last month figure was 0.6%.
• German CPI is released today, annual inflation is expected to remain at 2.4%
• US Durable Goods Orders released at 1.30pm, the figure is expected to fall from 4.0% to 0.4% this month.
• 3.30pm we have Crude Oil Inventories from the US. Expected to show a reading of 1.1M.
• 10.00pm Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech titled “Lessons from Emerging Market Economies on the Sources of Sustained Growth”. Interesting to see if this has any effect on the markets overnight.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.