At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.
Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.
Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).
Sterling traded steady against both the Euro and dollar yesterday as investors sight the UK’s
fiscal position as ‘slightly better’ than that of the other major currencies. The pound stayed
within a tight range of €1.1425 and €1.1499 against the Euro and $1.6435 and $1.6520
against the dollar.
Some analysts believe that despite the current fragile state of the UK economy, sterling is
being used like a semi-safe haven. They don’t necessarily see sterling as a good investment,
but see it as the ‘least worst’ of the G-10 currencies.
"Sterling is seen as a semi-safe haven, it is perceived by investors as the path of least policy
resistance," said an FX strategist at Credit Agricole.
"The UK has its own independent currency and the government is perceived to be doing
something fiscally austere. It's a haven while there is global asset market turmoil and a lack
of solution to the European debt situation."
However this ‘safe haven’ status for sterling could potentially be short lived as upcoming
data could highlight the fragility of the UK economy, and recent gains could retract.
Investors view the pound as undervalued compared to other G-10 currencies especially the
Euro and positioning data showed currency speculators increased short positions in sterling
versus the dollar in the week ending Aug 16, suggesting the pound has room to rise further if
speculators unwind those positions.
Yet they are still wary that the Bank of England could look at further quantitative easing somewhere
along the line. Recent data suggests the UK economy is stagnating, although it is holding up
better than the United States where a poor factory activity gauge last week prompted some
to warn the economy risked slipping into another recession.
Monday was an exceptionally quiet day for data, however the rest of the week will surely
see some volatility from the major data releases, which include New Home sales data at 3pm
today in the U.S., Nationwide House prices and consumer confidence on Wednesday
evening and UK 2nd Estimate GDP Figures for Q2.
IN THE UK
- Sterling remains steady against both Euro and Dollar due to no major data releases
- The pound is being looked upon as a semi-safe haven, not due to it looking like a good investment but because it is ‘less ugly’ than the other G-10 currencies
- Short term data could change the semi-safe haven status, as it could highlight the fragility of the UK economy.
- Investors are also wary that the Bank of England could look at further quantitative Easing somewhere along the line.
ELSEWHERE
- Fed's Bullard says he didn't agree with Fed in prolonging zero interest rate policy and sees increased inflationary risks in US economy
- China CB adviser says have some concerns about safety of its US holdings, this follows comments that world economy will not see double-dip recession, but says cannot count on China to save US and EU debt issues
- EU debt problems...Finland still looks for collateral to agree next Greek bailout
DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR
- Industrial orders for June at 10am in the Eurozone, expectations are looking like they will drop from the previous month
- In the US Durable Goods orders for July will be released at 13.30 and are expected to be a big improvement from the previous month
- At 3pm US Housing Price data for June will look to show a slight decline from 0.4% to 0.2%.
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Current Spot Rates (9.00am)
23rd August 2011 |
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USD |
EUR |
AUD |
CAD |
CHF |
DKK |
NOK |
HKD |
SEK |
ZAR |
JPY |
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GBP |
1.6551 |
1.1457 |
1.5782 |
1.6341 |
1.3032 |
8.53 |
8.99 |
12.85 |
10.48 |
11.86 |
126.5 |
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USD |
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0.6952 |
0.9597 |
0.9882 |
0.7873 |
5.177 |
5.454 |
7.80 |
6.36 |
7.20 |
76.76 |
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EUR |
1.4383 |
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1.3803 |
1.4214 |
1.1325 |
7.4481 |
7.8457 |
11.22 |
9.157 |
10.35 |
110.41 |
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Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.
This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.