Barack Obama

QROPS update 8th September 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

The dollar moved broadly lower on Wednesday as safe haven currencies lost their appeal on fresh optimism about President Barack Obama's jobs plan and the euro zone debt crisis.

Obama is expected to outline his jobs plan on Thursday, with a package worth an estimated $300bn. The plan is expected to include an extension of tax relief and an infrastructure plan focusing on schools. Aid for the unemployed and financially struggling states are also expected to be in the plan.

Hopes that the strategy will spur jobs growth soothed nervous markets. There was some good news the euro zone resolving its debt crisis after a German court upheld the first Greek bailout package. Italy's senate also approved an austerity package.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to talk about the outlook for the US economy on Thursday and the possibility of further quantitative easing.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six others, fell to 75.419 from 75.952 a day before.

The euro traded at $1.4098 from $1.3997 on Tuesday. The single currency also gained against the yen, rising to 108.86 yen from 108.70 yen.

Sterling was down against the euro and fell to a seven week low against the dollar on speculation that the Bank of England may use more stimuli to boost the sluggish UK economy following a raft of gloomy data.

The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% on Thursday and could hint at further QE.

 

IN THE UK

 

• Halifax HPI shows house prices declined by 1.2% last month after expectations of a

rise of 0.5% in August.

• UK Manufacturing also slowed at the fastest pace in more than a decade last month,

falling to 51.1 in August from 55.4 in July, exceeding forecasts of a more gentle drop

to 54.0.

• The Bank of England is now under pressure to introduce further QE to boost the

economy. GBPEUR drops to a low of 1.1325. Will sterling loose more ground after the

rate decision later this afternoon?

• GBP/USD fell to a one and a half month low to 1.5929.

 

ELSEWHERE

 

• German Industrial output rises far more than expected in July, boosted by a jump in

durable goods. Figures showed an increase of 4.0% in July, compared with

expectations of a 0.5% rise.

• The CAD strengthens after the Bank of Canada warned of a worsening global

economic picture, but not as dovish about interest rates as traders had expected and

keeping their rate steady as 1%, as expected

• Canada’s Ivey purchasing managers index rises sharply in August, jumping by 12.2

points to 57.6 in August from 45.4 in July. Expectations were for a rise of 1.4 points.

• The US Fed’s beige Book released last night provided no surprises, the story was

generally of weaker activity and uncertainty in the future.

• Australian employment figures were weaker than expected last night and last

month’s were revised down.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 

• Key announcement in the UK is the Bank of England interest rate decision meeting at 12.00pm

today. As the week has progressed more and more people have mentioned the

likelihood of further Quantitative Easing. The pound will be hit hard if additional asset

purchasing is voted in.

• At 12.45pm the ECB rate announcement is released, no change is expected but

analysts are waiting to see if Trichet in his conference afterwards, puts an end to the

programme of increasing rates, some are suggesting that even by late 2011

Eurozone rates could start to fall.

• CAD Building Permits and Trade balance figures, US Trade Balance and

Unemployment Claims are all out at 1.30pm

• President Obama speaks this evening in his eagerly anticipated speech, both him and

Ben Bernanke take to the stage. Many are expecting clues suggested the US will

start their third bout of QE later this month.

  Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 4th August 2011 Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions & Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Sterling began Wednesday morning on the front foot as it briefly hit a two month high

against the Euro. Traders put this positive movement down to concerns that the European

debt crisis could creep over into larger economies such as Spain and Italy. A further

acceleration against the single currency was restricted by a strong demand from UK

importers to purchase above the 1.15 level. Another stumbling block came in the form of

EUR/CHF strength, which derived from the Swiss National Bank announcing measures (in the

form of an interest rate cut), to slow recent appreciation in its currency.

“Sterling is essentially reacting to everything else going on…it is a play between major

currencies and is being pulled between them, said an economist at AIB

Group Treasury in Dublin.

Investors have found it hard of late to have a sustained interest in the Pound. The

International Monetary Fund commented on Monday that more quantitative easing may be

required to kick-start growth in the UK economy. This is an opinion shared by many in the

market as the disappointing data releases of late have been the norm.

The release of the PMI Services data came as a welcome relief to the recent trend of

economic information emerging out of the UK. The figure surprised analysts who had

expected a slowdown in activity. It rose to 55.4 in July from 53.9 in June (a figure above 50

indicates growth). A slight negative could be taken from a cut in jobs within the service

sector, especially as the previous two months had enjoyed an increase in employment. The

strongest increase in activity in services was seen in the Business Services and IT sectors

whereas hotels, catering and restaurants saw their growth slow.

“Yet again it’s the segments most exposed to consumers’ lack of disposable income that

suffered most, and all businesses are being hit by inflation and rising utility bills,” said the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and supply.

The Pound reacted positively to the data release, most notably against the U.S. Dollar. With

only a few minutes remaining before the close of the day, GBP/USD had hit a high of

$1.6474, a fingertip away from a two month high of $1.6477 (achieved earlier in the week).

The Greenback was pushed in all directions by the release of both positive and negative

economic data. MBA Mortgage Applications were seen as a positive as was the ADP

Employment Change. The negatives arrived in the form of a fall of 0.4% in the Factory

Orders and a change of 1.3M in EIA Crude Oil Stocks. A sigh of relief was heard across the

pond as President Barack Obama signed legislation to increase the US debt ceiling, thus

averting a financial default. It raises the debt limit by up to $2.4tn (£1.5tn) from $14.3tn and

makes savings of at least $2.1tn in 10 years. The resolution of the stand-off, failed to inspire

financial markets as the Dow Jones has fallen consistently for eight straight days. Credit

rating agency Moodys reacted by placing the US’s credit score as under a negative outlook.

The market will now look to the unemployment figures released out of the States on Friday

as an indication for near-term Dollar movement.

 

IN THE UK

 

  • PMI Services data unexpectedly shows UK services sector grew last month and is at 4 month high. Growth is  seen in the Business Services & IT, whilst a fall recorded in the hotels and restaurant sector
  • GBP/USD rises to 8 week high at 1.6405 whilst GBP/EUR falls, but still close to earlier 2 month high.
  • Pound jumps vs. Swiss Franc after SNB interest rate announcement.
  • The pound remains over comfortably over 1.50 against the strong AUD just breaking the 1.5400 mark as I type.

 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • Overnight the Yen tumbles as the Japanese Government and central bank intervene to help reduce its value, currently we are seeing this working well as the yen has depreciated by over 3.0% against a number of currencies since the London market opened.
  • The Bank of Japan has increased their asset purchase fund from 5 trillion Yen to 15 trillion Yen to help the economy after the recent natural disasters.
  • US ISM Non Manufacturing follows the earlier release in the week and show another decline.
  • The SNB have acknowledged the Swiss Franc is uncomfortably high and drop their interest rates to 0.25% to help weaken the currency. This morning it appears to have worked to some degree.
  • Purchasing Manager Index Services (Jul) from Germany saw a retreat to 52.9 from the 56.7 seen in June.  
  • The Euro found some unusual support from the Swiss National Bank, as appetite increased off the back of the rate cut announcement.
  • Dow Jones down for eight straight days.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 

  • Headline data today is the release of the both the BoE’s and ECB’s interest rate decision meeting results. Both central banks are expected to leave rates on hold at their respective 0.5% and 1.5% but rumours have been circulating about the slim possibility the UK may increase their quantitative easing package from its current £200bn, the markets have not priced in this in and if it does transpire the pound will sustain heavy losses, however the chances are very low.
  • ECB Press Conference held by Jean Claude Trichet after the ECB rate decision may reveal some surprises to Eurozone policy.
  • At 1.30pm US Continuing and Initial Jobless claims are released. Both figures may help to reveal how tomorrow far more important Non Farm Payrolls release may go.  

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

4th August 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6357

1.1472

1.5374

1.5824

1.2729

8.5442

8.8263

12.7580

10.46

11.12

130.678

USD

 

1.4262

0.9399

0.9674

0.7782

5.2236

5.3960

7.80

6.39

6.80

79.891

EUR

0.7012

 

1.3401

1.3794

1.1096

7.4479

7.6938

11.12

9.12

9.69

113.910

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 26th July 2011 Pension income drawdown & Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Yesterday morning saw sterling slip from a 5 week high vs. the US dollar with upcoming UK

growth figures leaving investors concerned that weaker than expected data leaves sterling

vulnerable.

Investors and analysts saw sterling above $1.63 as open to a downside correction ahead of

second quarter GDP figures released this morning. The consensus is currently that the UK

economy will grow 0.2% in the second quarter; however, a poor number will increase the

likelihood of a further round of monetary stimulus from the Bank of England and would lead

to a downside correction for sterling.

Sterling closed yesterday at $1.6285 retreating ahead of the data, however as in the

previous Asian trading session sterling rallied through the night pushing to an overnight high

of $1.6367 a new five week high vs. the US dollar. Sterling has enjoyed its best week against

USD since May as investors enjoyed further agreement on the servicing of Greek debt.

On the flip side, overnight sterling slipped against the Euro, falling during Asian trading from

a close around €1.1330 to €1.1265 at 08.15 this morning. Interest rates have been a key

driver for the Euro in recent weeks, as the Eurozone kicks off its monetary tightening

schedule and the UK interest rate hike is pushed back further and further into next year.

Poor growth in the UK economy would lead to this being pushed back even more, closer to

the end of next year, and perhaps the overnight rally of the euro vs. sterling is an indication

that investors are wary that a poor GDP reading is far from unlikely.

As is the case against USD a poor growth reading would more than likely push sterling lower,

however positive growth would be a positive sign for the UK and lead to a rally against the

European single currency.

Away from the GDP data yesterday ratings agency Moody’s cut Greek credit rating a further

three points to Ca, one point away from default and stated that a default was almost a

certainty. Adding that although the most recent bailout package would make it easier for the

country to pay down its debt it didn’t make it any less likely that it would default.

Also last night US president Barack Obama publicly criticised the blocking of intended

measures to increase the US debt ceiling, saying that at such an important time it was critical

not to get caught up in political wrangling and to reach an agreement for the good of the

American people whose jobs and livelihoods depended on them reaching an agreement. He

added that the US would be broke in 8 days unless an agreement could be reached.

 

IN THE UK

  • Markets eye the today’s UK GDP reading, only expected to show 0.2% growth after two previous flat quarters.
  • Sterling pushed to an overnight high and new 5 week high vs. the US dollar of $1.6367.
  • David Cameron said yesterday that the UK faced a tough task in reviving the UK economy
  • Pound falls this morning below €1.13 against the euro ahead of the GDP figures.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Barack Obama speaks publicly about the US debt ceiling and criticises those blocking an increase.
  • USD weaker across the board as no sign of progress on US debt limit talks, both sides of the argument are aware of the implications of not reaching an agreement but neither seems to be prepared to back down.  
  • US getting close to losing AAA rating, EUR/USD pushes back through $1.45
  • 7 days left now until the US is broke unless and resolution is reached.
  • Slightly less important it seems than the US crisis, some eyes still remain on the Spanish and Italian economies as yields continue to rise.
  • Last night RBA Governor speaks, says trade may remain fairly flat and income growth may slow down but tone of the speech is not as dovish as expected and caused the Aussie dollar to strengthen slightly.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • Headline data today is the UK Q2 GDP figures released at 9.30am, this is a day of reckoning for the UK economy, does the UK enter recession or does the recovery start from here. The majority of reports I have read seem to suggest the figures are likely to be disappointing and this appears to be priced in with the weak pound this morning. If the figures are better than expected the pound could really perform.
  • 3.00pm in the US sees New Homes Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing figures and monthly home figures. A mixed bag of results is expected and will ultimately be overshadowed by the on-going debt issues facing the US.   

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

26th July 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6335

1.1266

1.4948

1.5401

1.3109

8.3972

8.7552

12.7230

10.24

10.95

127.550

USD

 

1.4501

0.9151

0.9428

0.8025

5.1406

5.3598

7.79

6.27

6.70

78.084

EUR

0.6896

 

1.3268

1.3670

1.1636

7.4536

7.7713

11.29

9.09

9.72

113.217

 

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 14th April 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

It has not been a good day for the British pound, with the UK currency coming under

pressure from all sides. UK Retail sales data was particularly bleak, showing a like-for-like

slump of 3.5% in March, the worst figure in almost six years. Lower spending patterns are

becoming the norm among UK consumers, with clothes and book sales seeing their largest

declines since 2009 and 2005 respectively. This saw sterling fall down to a low of $1.6237

where it remained within range for the majority of the afternoon trading.

Elsewhere in the UK unemployment fell by 17,000 in the three months to the end of

February to 2.48 million, the first drop since last autumn, official figures show. The Office for

National Statistics (ONS) said the rate of unemployment in the UK had fallen to 7.8%. The

number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance rose by 700 in March to 1.45 million, the

ONS said. Creating the GBP/EUR fell to a 7 month low of €1.1205. These results mixed with

earlier reports of March’s falling inflation release pressure from Mervyn King to possibly

raise rates in the near term.

The Euro continues to hold well in the market even though the Industrial production level

fell quite sharply from an expected 0.8% to 0.4%, investors seem to be holding onto Euros

which is allowing it to hold, amidst speculation that the EMU may continue to raise interest

rates in the near future. The Euro pushed to a daily high of $1.45199 just falling short of the

key resistance of $1.452.

In the US retail sales rose in 0.4% in March, barely below market expectations of a 0.5%

increase while retails sales excluding cars rose 0.8% surpassing analyst estimates of a 0.6%

gain. Barbara Rockefeller from Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. points out that the data is

relevant as sales are a barometer of consumer confidence but affirms that the big news

today is the announcement of the plan to cut the deficit that will be presented by Barack

Obama. President Obama is set to announce long-term proposals for cutting the federal

deficit today. In May, the government may be forced to increase the $14.3 trillion federal

debt ceiling to ensure the U.S. will meet its financial obligations.

The Swedish Krona continues to strengthen as the Government announces improved

forecasts for economic growth, Sweden is now the largest growing economy in Europe and

has seen the SEK move up to a high today of 10.11 against sterling. The Canadian dollar

slipped off in the markets after reports form the Bank of Canada who kept rates unchanged.

Interactive Brokers informs: "The Bank of Canada releases its Monetary

Policy Report today having left policy on hold on Tuesday. At the time it raised its growth

outlook for this year from 2.4% to 2.9% and said that full output would be achieved by mid-

2012. However, it also pared its forecasts for the next two years and warned that a rise in

the currency would dampen export demand."

 

IN THE UK 

  • UK unemployment fell by 17,000 in the three months to the end of February to 2.48 million, the first drop since last autumn.
  • ILO Unemployment Rate fell to 7.8% driven by a rise in employment rather decline in the size of the workforce.
  • Despite some encouraging employment data, GBP/EUR fell to a 7 month low of €1.1205 and cable to $1.6237
  • UK Retail sales data was particularly bleak, showing a like-for-like slump of 3.5% in March

 ELSEWHERE

  • ECB’s Weber says further monetary tightening is appropriate and phasing out of non standard measures to continue. This will provide particular significance to EURUSD, because in contrast, the US are nowhere near hiking rates and QE2 is still ongoing.
  • Euro still holds strong against most currencies, EUR/USD high of $1.4519
  • US Retail Sales were slightly better than expected, posting rise of 0.8% ex autos in March, dollar sees slight gains.
  • Fed’s Beige Book survey shows the US economy expanded at a modest pace led by manufacturing.
  • Fed’s Bullard is less dovish than expected and is hopeful for the future.
  • Swedish Krona strengthens as the Government announces improved forecasts for economic growth
  • Risk appetite finely balanced as Japan sees further earthquakes, no tsunami warning. Electronics and auto manufacturers around the world feel the pinch as Japanese exports remain desperately low despite hard work and ongoing clean up.  

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • G7 meeting where the worlds economics will be discussed in depth
  • ECB monthly report may give indications on whether we can expect further interest rates in the near term future.
  • Portuguese Cabinet press conference, bailout terms to be addressed
  • US PPI figures expected slightly better at 1.9% compared to a previous 1.8% and Initial Jobless Claims
  • Most of the Fed members who have not spoken already this week will speak today
  • Chinese data is expected to show inflation rose to 5.2% and GDP rose to 9.4%. Chinese PM has stated that he will need to use a stronger currency and increase interest rates to ensure the economy does not boil over.  

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

14th April 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6348

1.1274

1.5516

1.5691

1.4603

10.16

11.09

136.471

USD

 

1.4500

0.9491

0.9598

0.8933

6.21

6.78

83.479

 

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 27th January 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

The headline of yesterday was that sterling gained against the US dollar as the release of the latest Bank of England minutes showed that there are now two members of the Monetary Policy Committee favouring an increase in interest rates.

Sterling picked up throughout the afternoon to a high of €1.1628.

This pushed the UK currency higher against the UK to $1.5850, although the rally is likely to be short-lived since Tuesday’s dismal GDP figures show that Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, was probably correct in leaving monetary policy at its current loose level. There may be others on the committee that, at the time, sympathised with the views of Sentance and Weale but the vote was cast at the start of the month before the poor figures were released. Their opinions may now have changed and next months voting could potentially move back to 8-1 or even 9-0.

 

Some of the gains in sterling could be attributed to a bounce back effect of Tuesday’s steep falls, with the markets settling down after sterling dropped by more than 1% against the US dollar in a matter of minutes. If sentiment turns negative about the prospects for the UK, then GBP/USD may drop as investors shift away from sterling and back towards the dollar. The dollar itself maintained a relatively soft tone and moved lower against the euro, after US President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address called for a five-year spending freeze in federal expenditures and sent Treasury yields lower.

 

The single currency rose to its highest level against the dollar at $1.3723 earlier in the session, benefiting mainly form a softer dollar tone and dipped only briefly after a German bond auction generated weaker-than-expected demand and after data showed that European banks increased their borrowing from the European Central Bank.

"There is scope for the euro to go higher against the dollar to around $1.40, before people get exhausted," said a currency strategist at Credit Agricole in London. "There are no obvious banana skins out there for the euro, mainly because everyone has stopped talking about the debt crisis".

 

In today’s market data we focus on the German CPI figures which are expected to fall to -0.4% from a previous 1%, if this is the case it should as the euro’s largest economy affect its recent strength in the markets. UK CBI reported sales and US pending home sales due to drop from 3.5% to 1%. The main focus for the week will be tomorrows US GDP figures which is expected to go from 2.6% to 3.5%, a figure that will undoubtedly have an effect on the market.

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

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