US Commerce Department

IFX Market Reporti

Sterling

 

Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday, lifted by broad weakness in the U.S. currency and by an opinion poll showing the opposition Conservatives on course to win a majority in an upcoming general election.

The pound's movements were driven mainly by the dollar, which fell on reports U.S. President Barack Obama plans to nominate San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen, seen by many as dovish, as central bank vice chairman.

It also gained support early in the session by an online opinion poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion showing the Conservatives well ahead of the ruling Labour Party, contrasting with other surveys showing the race too close to call.

Euro

Risk appetite has picked up strongly on Friday's European session despite concerns about the odds of Chinese government tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, the Euro and Pound soared against the Dollar, which dropped across the board.

 

With risk appetite returning to the markets, the euro and the pound have both posted major gains at the expense of the Japanese yen in this week's trading. Both European currencies have followed almost identical paths, extending three-day rallies to the tune of more than 300 pips versus the yen.

 

Euro recovery from week-lows at 1.3535/45 area on Mar 9 and 10 has broken to levels above 1.3700 on European session to hit a fresh 3-weeks high at 1.3738 on improved risk appetite which is weighing the Dollar across the board

 

Dollar

 

US retail sales showed a surprise rise in February as consumers braved extreme bad weather to get to the shops.

The US Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.3% last month, whereas forecasts had predicted a fall of 0.2%.

The rise, the biggest since November, fuelled hopes that economic recovery is gaining momentum and helped to boost shares on Wall Street.

Parts of America were hit by major snow storms in February, sparking concerns that consumers would remain at home.

The overall gain in sales was held back by a 2% fall in car sales, reflecting in part the recall problems at Toyota.

Excluding cars, sales rose 0.8%, far better than the 0.1% rise outside of autos that economists had forecast.

 

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined for a second month in March, a sign Americans are discouraged about the labor market.

Gains in confidence that may encourage Americans to pick up the pace of spending depend on payroll growth after the loss of 8.4 million jobs the last two years. Retail sales unexpectedly increased last month, a separate report from the Commerce Department showed today.

“Spending will be holding up relatively well for the remainder of this year but it is not going to come roaring back until we get the jobs necessary to lower the unemployment rate,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Stocks fell after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declining 0.2 percent to 1,148.19 at 10:12 a.m. in New York.

IFX Market Report - 19 November 2009

The BoE minutes were released yesterday revealing a three way split in their decision to increase the asset buying programme earlier in the month by £25 billion. There are 9 members of the MPC of which 1 voted for an increase of £40 billion, 1 member voted for no increase with the remaining 7 opting for the £25 billion. This has left the door open for further future increases but as the past has shown nothing can be confirmed until their next meeting. A lot will depend on the Q4 GDP figures as an increase and more positive outlook is needed after the Q3 GDP.

The members however were unanimous in the decision to keep interest rates at the record low of 0.5% for the foreseeable future and for a longer time than those in most other developed economies.

The release of the minutes showed the committee had discussed the positive factors and option of cutting the remuneration rate the BoE pays on commercial bank reserves this resulted in sterling losing a lot of the gains it has recently achieved in yesterday’s morning session.

Sterling continued to fall in the afternoon session and hit lows of €1.1174 down from €1.1311 as the euro made its biggest daily percentage rise in nearly a month. The pound also fell against the dollar from session highs of $1.6844 to $1.6741 which shows there is still a lot of volatility in the markets, the drop in the pound has a lot to do with the uncertainty moving forward. Over in the US risk aversion was kick started again following the US Commerce Department reporting housing starts dropped 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 529,000 units, the lowest since April. It was the biggest fall in 10 months.

Data released in the UK included a survey which showed factory orders fell in October by its slowest rate since December 08, whilst the export demand was at its strongest level since April 09.

Today the UK will see data releases which included Retail sales and mortgage approvals.

Intraday Support and Resistance Levels for the day

 

EUR/USD

 GBP/USD

USD/JPY

 USD/CHF

 AUD/USD

EUR/GBP

Daily Trend

          

    

 

    

    

       

Weekly Trend 

  

  

   

  

    

  

Resistance

1.4990

1.6775     

89.90      

1.0210      

0.9320       

0.9010

1.4970

1.6755

89.70

1.0190

0.9300

0.8990

1.4940

1.6725

89.40

1.0160

0.9270

0.8960

Support

1.4880

1.6665

88.80

1.0100

0.9210

0.8900

1.4850

1.6635

88.50

1.0070

0.9180

0.8870

1.4830

1.6615

88.30

1.0050

0.9160

0.8850

 

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