Greek government

QROPS update 7th February 2012 and QROPS & QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Tue, 07/Feb/2012

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

 

  • Sterling initially rose against the euro yesterday after Greek politicians struggled to agree on bailout terms which increased concern over the sovereign debt crisis and made investors return to safe haven assets, the pound rose from the session low of €1.2033 to reach the high of €1.2099..
  • Sterling initially lost ground against the US dollar in early trade but retraced its losses in the afternoon moving away from the low of $1.5729 to end the session near the high of $1.5840.
  • Concern mounts that even though the UK has seen a recent run of stronger-than-expected economic data which has supported sterling, this may be not be enough to dissuade the BoE policy members from announcing an increase in QE at their monthly policy meeting on Thursday.  

 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • The deadline set for the Greek government yesterday to agree terms of a second bailout was missed. They must now give a decision before Eurozone finance ministers next meet. Despite missing deadlines the euro continues to find support and a new “final” deadline still seems to be next Monday, if we don’t have progress by tomorrow a break below $1.30 against the US dollar seems likely.
  • French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel presented a united front yesterday, proposing the setting up of an account for Greece’s interest payments to guarantee lenders are paid in full.
  • Moody’s investor services said that the outcome of the EU summit in January failed to encourage an improved outlook for the Eurozone and highlighted the risk for contagion as the region faces additional credit rating downgrades in 2012.
  • The ECB are expected to maintain a dovish stance at its monthly rate decision meeting held on Thursday as speculation mounts we may see another interest rate cut.
  • A Eurozone recession could almost halve Chinese growth this year, according to the IMF Chinas economy will grow by 8.2% this year but warns a recession in the Eurozone could cut this to 4.2%. Beijing should get ready to inject billions of USD into the economy to fend off any downturn. .
  • BOJ Shirakawa has commented saying that current deflation and the Yen strength are very ‘severe’ and that steady policy needs to be implemented by investigating economic conditions.
  • JPY weakened for the third time in four days against the dollar and euro as government data showed Japan carried out so called stealth intervention to weaken the currency in November, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he won’t rule out any options to curb the currencies appreciation.
  • In late trade yesterday the US dollar weakened significantly, falling over a cent to 1.3136 against the euro, a fall mirrored against the pound. Reports surfaced that the US debt situation is ‘Very Serious’ and ‘Crisis Mode’ could develop quickly.
  • Perhaps the most surprising news of the last 24hrs is Australian central banks decision to leave interest rates on hold at 4.25% at 3.30am (GMT) this morning. With less than ideal employment, retails sales and housing market conditions, the markets were fully expecting a drop to 4.0%. The drop never emerged and AUD has strengthened by up to 1.0% against all of the majors pairs. GBPAUD now trades at 1.4650 and AUDUSD is just under 1.08.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

 

  • Another fairly quiet day of data today and markets again will be driven by developments in the Eurozone.
  • Germany release industrial production at 11.00am which is expected to rise for both MoM and YoY.
  • The US releases consumer credit change for December at 8pm this shows the amount of money that individuals borrow, this is expected to fall to $7.30B from $20.37b previous.
  • Meanwhile, in the absence of US data today, the only key event in the US is Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. We expect him to maintain the Fed’s dovish tone regarding the US economic outlook, despite the stronger than expected January non-farm payrolls.  
  • At 11:30pm Australia releases Westpac Consumer Confidence for February.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5809

1.2037

1.4648

1.5747

1.4534

8.9498

9.1856

12.2574

10.63

11.95

121.332

USD

 

0.7615

0.9266

0.9961

0.9193

5.6612

5.8104

7.75

6.72

7.56

76.749

EUR

1.3132

 

1.2169

1.3082

1.2074

7.4352

7.6311

10.18

8.83

9.93

100.799

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

QROPS update 2nd February 2012 Pension drawdwon & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Thu, 02/Feb/2012

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

N THE UK

 

·         Policy makers in the UK have been accused of not doing enough to promote competition in banking and nurture alternative sources of finance for small businesses.  As rates remain low and inflation is likely to continue to slow BoE Policy maker Adam Posen has pointed the finger saying that banks and policy makers are still risk averse and reluctant.

·         UK Purchasing Managers Index suggested a slight improvement in manufacturing, posting a figure of 52.1 versus expectations of 50.1 which resulted in GBP capitalising on a move higher against the dollar to $1.5857 and recovering back above €1.20 against the euro.

·         Having broken through a level of resistance at $1.5770 the pound moved to its highest level against the greenback since November of 2011.  Focus remains to the upside despite short term risk of a slight correction lower.

·         GBP/JPY is considered to have found a floor following a drop off in sterling during the month of January; the battle between these two safe havens seems to have changed direction and traders feel the pounds attack on key resistance level of 121 could pave the way for further gains. 

 

ELSEWHERE

 

·         Despite coming under increased pressure to join the bond swap being negotiated with Greece, the ECB remains coy over how it will help the country cut its debt burden. The Greek Government has until 20th March to reach a deal and release the second EU bailout.

·         Polish Finance Minister Jan Vincent Rostowski argues that factors such as the absorption of EU structural funds and recent measures undertaken by the ECB have stabilised conditions in the European environment; a feint voice against stiff criticism of German and French leaders.

·         All major currencies are trading higher against USD following better than expected PMI figures from China and Europe and the lower than expected figures for US ADP non-farm employment and PMI.

·         Switzerland posted retail sales a percent below expectations of 1.6%, but December saw a 21% rise in exports. Despite the offsetting effect of this information CHF lost value against GBP, EUR , USD and AUD and this morning’s worse than expected trade balance of 2.07B leaves the Franc open to further movement lower.

·         Australia posted a favourable trade balance (surplus) at $1.71B, exceeding expectations of 1.22B and bringing GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD to 1.4754 and 1.2280 respectively on the back of a boom in mining exports.

·         Japan posted a 15% figure for its year on year monetary base.  The Japanese bought the highest number of foreign bonds since September in the week ending 27th January, suggesting the BoJ are keen to hedge  against the risk of global inflation.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

 

·         Construction data for the UK is released later this morning, and the markets will be looking to asses comments expected from MPC member Posen at approximately 2.00pm.

·         US unemployment figures, forecasted for 373k, will be complimented by testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5835

1.2048

1.4774

1.5813

1.4517

8.9560

8.2107

12.2790

10.66

12.19

120.516

USD

 

0.7613

0.9330

0.9986

0.9168

5.6558

5.1852

7.75

6.73

7.70

76.107

EUR

1.3135

 

1.2263

1.3125

1.2049

7.4336

6.8150

10.19

8.85

10.12

100.030

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 22nd November 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Tue, 22/Nov/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK

  • UK house prices fell by 3.1% in November, the biggest decrease since November 2010 and caused the pound to fall against the dollar for the first time in 3 days, dropping 1% from the session high of $1.5775 to end the day’s trading near the low of $1.5612 a fresh months low.
  • <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />Sterling falls from €1.1683 against the euro to end the session near the low of €1.1572.
  • UK Prime Minister David Cameron said his government will unveil a ‘massive’ credit-easing program to stimulate the ailing economy, and pledged to ‘use the strength of the government’s balance sheet to pump billions of pounds into reducing the cost of loans for small and medium sized businesses’ as the region faces an increased risk of a double-dip recession
  • UK stocks drop for the 6th day yesterday amid signs US lawmakers will fail to agree on budget cuts, raising the prospect America will face another credit rating downgrade.
  • This morning the pound rises from a 6 week low against the dollar before a government report that economists said will show Britain’s budget deficit narrowed in October. 

 

ELSEWHERE

  • The Bundesbank warned of a ‘pronounced’ slowdown in the Eurozone as the central bank sees Europe’s largest economy growing 0.5% - 1.0% next year versus an initial forecasts for a 1.8% expansion in GDP, and the slowing recovery may prompt the European Central Bank to carry its easing cycle into 2012 as the region struggles to contain the sovereign debt crisis.
  • The new Greek government has submitted its plans for next year's budget, promising to almost halve the deficit. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos predicted the deficit would fall from 9% of GDP this year to 5.4% in 2012 due to a write-off of debt held by banks.
  • In late afternoon trade the euro erased early gains against the dollar and ended trade near the day’s high of 1.3537.
  • US Home Sales increased to 4.97M in October and came in above market expectations.
  • Japan's exports have fallen for the first time in three months, reinforcing worries that the strong yen and global debt crisis are affecting the economy.
  • The Yen and US dollar rally yesterday after bets increase that US lawmakers will announce that the ‘Super Committee’ failed to agree on deficit cuts, boosting demand for safe haven currencies. This ‘risk off’ attitude has caused the Australian dollar to fall to a new five week low on reduced demand, whilst the Canadian dollar falls to its lowest level in 6 weeks against the US dollar.
  • On a positive note for the US Moody’s affirmed the US’s AAA credit rating but maintained its negative outlook. 

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

  • Today the UK releases Public sector Net borrowing at 9:30am.
  • Canada releases Retail sales at 13:30pm which is expected to show no changed from the previous release.
  • The US GDP annualized is also released at 13:30pm these are expected to be revised down to 2.5% from 3.3% which could send investors further towards safe haven assets.
  • The European Monetary Union releases Octobers Consumer Confidence which is expected to fall further to -20.
  • The US also releases its November FOMC minutes at 7pm. 

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

22nd November 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5668

1.1578

1.5853

1.6258

1.4306

8.6170

9.0589

12.2050

10.65

12.98

120.508

USD

 

0.7388

1.0118

1.0377

0.9131

5.4997

5.7818

7.79

6.80

8.28

76.913

EUR

1.3535

 

1.3692

1.4042

1.2356

7.4426

7.8242

10.54

9.20

11.21

104.084

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 23rd June 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Thu, 23/Jun/2011

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.

 

Sterling should not have bothered showing up on Wednesday, as it fell to a six week low

against a host of currencies. The market made its judgement after the Bank of England

minutes showed policymakers forecasting a weaker outlook on growth and not ruling out

the need for further stimulus. Investors were of the same opinion that the resulting

commentary was more dovish than expected. The newly joined member, former Goldman

Sachs economist Ben Broadbent, voted in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged giving a

seven-to-two majority. This saw a change with the voting record as his predecessor, Andrew

Sentence, had been backing a half-point rate rise since February. Rates have remained at a

record low for twenty seven months and Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said

the minutes suggested they would stay at 0.5%, with any change more likely to be a further

round of quantitative easing than a rate rise.

“Together with the more dovish composition of the MPC, this suggests the chances of

interest rates rising this year have decreased and the chance of additional stimulus have

risen,” he said.

Despite the majority voting to leave rates on hold, the minutes also showed that the worry

of the rise in inflation was also in the forefront of the meeting. Official figures showed that

consumer price inflation in May remained more than double the 2% target rate, at 4.5%.

Committee members conceded that it remained likely that it would continue to rise,

probably above 5%, before falling back again.

“It is clear that the Bank of England is not going to be raising rates any time soon and it’s no surprise sterling is weakening,” said a currency strategist at nabCapital.

The minutes cited some factors outside of the UK in influencing their decision-making. The

MPC pointed out that there was evidence of a slowdown in the global economy, contributed

to a degree by the tsunami in Japan, which would affect the UK’s recovery.

The Euro joined in the anti-Pound party as it enjoyed some decent gains in the run up to the

Greek confidence vote. However, it failed to find significant momentum after George

Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, survived his test in parliament. The news increased

the chances that the Greek government would be able to push through austerity measures

in an emergency budget, a necessity for obtaining €12bn of emergency funding. A deadline

of July 2nd has been set by European finance ministers for them to implement such

measures. Eurozone policymakers still have not agreed on the scope and the scale of a new

Greek aid package and failed to resolve the issue of whether private sector investors should

participate in any form of restructuring. Overall most investors are positive in their beliefs

that European policymakers will come up with a solution for Greece and will not allow it to

fail.

Across the pond, all eyes were focused on Ben Bernanke’s news conference and the

resulting comments on the slowing U.S. economy. According to some, the Fed

may cut the growth target to 2.7%, down from an earlier forecast of 3.1%. The key factors

behind such a reduction are the poor data releases in the employment and housing sector.

Some market watchers expect the Fed announcement to put pressure on the USD in the

near term. This could come off the back of a decision to let the second round of QE to finish

at the end of June (as scheduled) and the market looks to have already priced this in.

 

IN THE UK

 

  • Minutes from the Bank of England’s June meeting came in more dovish than expected.
  • GBP/USD drops to a low of 1.6091, on a day that sees Sterling fall against all major currencies.
  • Ben Broadbent (replacing Andrew Sentence) votes giving a 7-2 majority in keeping rates on hold.
  • Some BoE policymakers see chance of more QE if the UK economy continues to falter.

 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • Euro could be set to test the 90 pence level against a struggling pound.
  • Market sentiment sways towards the fact that EU policymakers will come through for Greece.
  • Positive data from April’s Housing Price index in the States help the USD hold firm against both the EUR & GBP.
  • FOMC meeting shows interest rates remain on hold in the States.
  • Yesterday evening the press conference following the FOMC meeting reveals that the $600 asset buying programme QE2 finishes this month, there was no mention starting an additional bout of buying so for now, QE3 is off the radar causing the dollar to rally
  • Bernanke said interest rates would remain low to help spur a struggling economy. Recovery appears to proceeding at a moderate pace but growth forecasts have been reduced and unemployment is expected to fall “very painfully slowly”
  • Dollars post gains against the majors EUR/USD falls from over 1.44 to drop to a low of 1.4250, GBP/USD falls this morning to 1.6010
  • Eurozone PMI Manufacturing and Services figures both released this morning below consensus, whilst the individual German figure for Services climbed to 58.3

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 

  • This morning the BBA issues the number of UK mortgage approvals in May, a slight improvement to 30.0k is expected
  • 11.00am CBI distributive Trades Survey is released, the figure is expected to fall to 12
  • Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims is released at 1.30 in the US, the numbers are likely to remain on par with last month
  • New Homes Sales for May are published at 3.00pm. Consensus is for a fairly significant fall in May
  • ECB Trichet’s Speech at 16.00 GMT.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

23rd June 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6029

1.1238

1.5225

1.5600

1.3480

8.3802

8.7740

10.28

10.88

129.113

USD

 

1.4261

0.9498

0.9732

0.8410

5.2281

5.4738

6.41

6.79

80.550

EUR

0.7012

 

1.3548

1.3882

1.1995

7.4570

7.8074

9.15

9.68

114.890

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

QROPS update 20th June 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Mon, 20/Jun/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Despite the markets being very concerned about an agreement not being reached in Greece

sterling lost ground against the European single currency on Friday following reports that

Germany and France had agreed to work with the ECB to resolve the problem.

The Greeks did manage to get something done during the week, their first step forward was

to remove their finance minister and replace him.

Thankfully for the UK the unresolved situation in Greece drew the gaze of the markets away

from what was a very poor week for the UK on the data front, with retail sales being the pick

of the bunch. Had the problems in Greece been less prevalent we may have seen sterling

loose further ground.

With the Euro zone interest rates expected to increase to 1.5% within the next month and

sterling’s interest rate announcement now not expected until mid-2012, expect to see

sterling remain under pressure moving forward. This morning sterling was trading at

GBP/EUR 1.1322.

Many people in the markets still see the Euro as overpriced, however, with very little else to

choose from it is a case of necessity for investors. Throughout the last week the US dollar

has seen some of it's safe haven status return, with many investors returning to USD from

the Euro following the failure of anything concrete being agreed in Greece. This has led to

USD strength across the board with GBP/USD returning towards the 1.60 level with a session

low of 1.6078 last week and EUR/USD being driven back down towards 1.40.

 

IN THE UK

  • Sterling struggles across the board on the back of poor UK data.
  • In particular the pound fell towards the $1.6078 low set on Thursday against the dollar as the troubles in Greece caused investors to shed positions in riskier currencies such as the pound
  • UK banks reported to have pulled billions of pounds from euro zone over fears of major financial event.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • An agreement yet to be reached on Greece but Germany and France pledge help, this helps the euro reverse some of its recent losses, against the pound it strengthened from a high of €1.1466 to close on Friday at €1.1292
  • US dollar regains some of it’s safe haven status and maintains gains against the euro, EURUSD falls to $1.4145
  • Next on Moodys’ hit list is Italy, the credit ratings agency have suggested they may drop their rating after their 2010 debt amounted to 119% of GDP, second only to Greece
  • Spain asks Russia to invest some reserves in Spanish debt.
  • FOMC on Wednesday likely to officially announce end QE2, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to reiterate that the balance in risk does not favour further asset purchases, meaning QE3 is unlikely and these comments are expected to be dollar positive.
  • China property prices suggest some signs of moderation in the Chinese economy.
  • Over the weekend EU finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on the Greek scenario and did not release the loan payment.
  • Greek PM Papandreou is being forced to deliver crippling budget cuts despite massive domestic opposition before the EU will release the payment, the Greek government are very much caught between a rock and a hard place and some analysts think this could lead the euro to weaken to 84p (1.1904) against the pound

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR                                                

  • Apart from German Produce Price Index and Eurozone Current which both came in just below par there is little in the way of data announcements released today. However there are speeches from ECB members Weidmann, Stark and Trichet and then later this evening US Treasury Secretary Geithner.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

20th June 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6134

1.1349

1.5347

1.5877

1.3650

8.4653

8.9672

10.40

10.98

129.310

USD

 

1.4215

0.9512

0.9841

0.8460

5.2469

5.5580

6.45

6.81

80.148

EUR

0.7035

 

1.3523

1.3990

1.2027

7.4591

7.9013

9.16

9.67

113.940

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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