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QROPS update 5th October 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Wed, 05/Oct/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Tuesday saw sterling fall to its lowest level in 13 months against the dollar and came under

attack against the euro, after the release of weak UK construction data added further

speculation that the Bank of England may be pushed further towards more quantitative

easing.

The pound also came under pressure along with other riskier assets and higher yielding

currencies as increasing problems with growth funding weighed down on the banking sector

with some European banks under intense selling pressure due to the exposure to the Greek

debt crisis.

The UK Construction headline activity index fell sharply to 50.1 in September from 52.6 in

August, its lowest reading in 10 months and weaker than forecasts of a 51.5 drop. Sterling

hit a low of 1.5339 against the ever buoyant dollar, not far from its recent low of 1.5326

which was its lowest level since early September 2010.

“A break below the 1.5320/25 level should see some more sell-stops being triggered

dragging it lower” said a forex trader at ETX capital. “Sterling is looking

very heavy going into the Bank of England decision on Thursday”

Earlier in the morning some traders were saying there was an interest in buying sterling at

the 1.5400/10 from Eastern European names and Sian sovereigns. Sentiment towards

sterling has taken a down turn in recent weeks on expectations more QE may be needed to

revive the flagging economy. Another round would flood the market with the UK currency,

reducing its demand.

Late in afternoon trading we saw the Euro strengthen across the board as Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben Bernanke warned of continued strain on the U.S economy and noted the

negative impact of elevated volatility and risk aversion in the financial market during

testimony before a joint committee of Congress. As a result of these comments we saw

GBP/EUR fall to hit a low of 1.1575, and EUR/USD rally 1.33.

 

IN THE UK

  • GBP/USD falls to a near 13 month low, hitting a low of 1.5339 but recovers in the afternoon trading above the $1.5400 level
  • UK Construction PMI falls sharply to 50.1 in September much lower than the 51.5 drop forecasted and disappoints the markets after Monday’s surprise rise in Manufacturing.
  • After the release of weak UK construction data, renewed speculation of further QE, causes sterling to fall across the board
  • GBP/EUR moves from 1.1717 hit overnight to fall a low of 1.1565.
  • UK PMI Services just released shows another surprise rise, 52.9 instead of the expected fall to 50.7, sterling moves up off session lows to $1.5447 and €1.1617
  • Final print of UK Q2 GDP reports an downwards revision to 0.1% from the previously released 0.2%

 

ELSEWHERE

  • USD falls across the board after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech last night, he warns congress of more sluggish jobs data ahead, causing EUR/USD to hit 1.33
  • US factory orders dip 0.2% in August
  • Eurozone producer prices fall 0.1% in August
  • EUR/CHF spikes above 1.22, its highest level in almost 2 weeks, there is talk circulating that the SNB may raise the EURCHF lower limit to 1.3000
  • Italy downgraded by Moody’s by 3 notches, follows S+P’s downgrade last month, this has little effect on euro strength.
  • European Finance Minister says that Eurozone nations intend to support their banks as current events show the danger of banking sector troubles escalating. Belgium Prime Minister says that investors and savers need not to worry as no one will lose a single cent over the Dexia problems.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

  • Eurozone GDP is released at 10.00am, the previous release was 2.5%
  • Also at 10.00am Eurozone retail sales are released, expected to fall in August to -0.2%
  • At 1.15pm ADP Employment Change is released in the US, will provide investors with a idea of what Friday’s more important Nonfarm Payrolls might be look like. A fall to 75k is expected from 91k last month.
  • 3.00pm ISM Non Manufacturing figures are released.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

5th October 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5422

1.1597

1.6155

1.6273

1.4229

8.6332

9.0826

12.0002

10.59

12.55

118.295

USD

 

1.3303

1.0475

1.0552

0.9226

5.5980

5.8894

7.78

6.87

8.14

76.705

EUR

0.7520

 

1.3930

1.4032

1.2270

7.4443

7.8319

10.35

9.13

10.82

102.005

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 1st August 2011 Pension income drawdown & Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Tue, 02/Aug/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Across the Atlantic, Friday's US July non-farm payrolls data will be in focus this week. Today,

investors will look at US July ISM data and US June construction spending data, both due at

14.00 GMT.

Focus over the weekend was on the US debt crisis, on Sunday evening leaders of both

parties in the US House and Senate had approved an agreement to raise the nation’s debt

ceiling by $2.1 trillion and cut the federal deficit by as much as $2.5 trillion over a decade, a

deal which must now be sold to Congress. This should be enough to satisfy the international

ratings agencies to sustain their AAA rating.

They are preparing to sell the deal to members to cut $917 billion in spending over a decade,

raisin the debt limit to $900 billion initially, and to charge a special committee with finding

another $1.5 trillion in deficit savings by the year’s end. This has a deadline for approval of

2nd August.

In reaction to the proposals, dollar and oil prices climbed and gold fell. The dollar rose 0.2%

to $1.4376 against the euro and 1.3% to 77.79 yen in Tokyo trading. GBP/USD has found

support above $1.64 after hitting a low of $1.6259

With just two days left before the US Treasury had said the nation would default, both sides

made concessions. Republicans dropped their insistence on withholding some of the

borrowing authority until future spending cuts had been made and a balanced budget

amendment to the Constitution had been passed by Congress.

If the super committee’s work failed to yield at least $1.2 trillion in debt reduction, sweeping

automatic spending cuts would go into effect affecting defence and medicare.

Congress could try to block the borrowing increase with a disapproval resolution, yet would

almost certainly fail to muster the two-thirds majority needed in both the House and the

Senate to override the President’s veto.

In terms of domestic economic data, the August Bank of England interest rate decision on

Thursday will fall under the spotlight. This morning we await the release of UK PMI data for

July with a consensus view of 51.1 down from a previous of 51.3.

 

IN THE UK

  • House prices in the UK are stabilising, according to the latest monthly report from the Nationwide building society. Prices across the UK rose by 0.2% in July, to £168,731, leaving them just 0.4% lower than a year ago.
  • The Footsie jumps in London on the back of Bank profits including RBS, Barclays and HSBC all reporting gains.
  • GBP/USD holds above $1.64 after hitting lows of $1.6259 as a return to risk on positions help the pound.
  • This morning PMI Manufacturing for July was released decidedly weaker than expected at 49.1 against a predicted 51.1, the pound initially falls but has settled now.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Data released on Friday showed US GDP well short of expectations at 1.3% against an expected 1.7% and last quarter’s growth figure was revised lower by 0.4%, initially after the data was released the dollar started to make gains as investors remained cautious.
  • Finally headway has been made over the weekend on the US debt crisis, Democratic and Republican leaders have tentatively agreed to raise the debt limit by $2.1 trillion dollars in two tranches and reduce the federal deficit by $2.5 trillion. The deal still needs to be passed by Congress but the hard work is done.
  • Safe haven currencies such as the Yen, US dollar and Swiss franc all slip over the weekend after the US debt announcement as investors take a sigh of relief and start to buy riskier assets such as the pound and euro.
  • European stocks follow the risk appetite trend and trade higher.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate is published this morning and expected to remain at 9.9% showing there is little change across in the employment sector.  
  • At 3.00pm this afternoon ISM Prices Paid, and ISM Manufacturing are expected to show a slight fall, showing a slight drop in the manufacturing sector
  • US Construction spending (MoM) is also released at 3.00pm this afternoon
  • Without doubt the most important announcement today is when Congress vote on the recently proposed debt limit plans at 8.00pm this evening, with any luck we will come to work in the morning and everything will be agreed and the whole world can move on.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

1st August 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6457

1.1421

1.4894

1.5660

1.3044

8.5089

8.8231

12.8230

10.31

10.31

127.583

USD

 

1.4411

0.9050

0.9516

0.7926

5.1704

5.3613

7.79

6.27

6.26

77.525

EUR

0.6939

 

1.3041

1.3712

1.1421

7.4502

7.7253

11.23

9.03

9.03

111.709

 

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 12th July 2011 Pension income drawdown & Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Thu, 14/Jul/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Burberry and the miners dominated the risers early on, as the Footsie attempted to recover from the previous day of losses.

Iconic British luxury brand Burberry jumped higher early on after underlying sales soared by 34% in the first quarter, driven largely by strong retail growth in China. "We are pleased with Burberry's start to the year, with double-digit growth balanced across retail and wholesale and all regions and product categories," said chief executive officer Angela Ahrendts.

Mining titan Xstrata was in demand after taking full control of the Pallas Green zinc project in Ireland, buying out the 23.6% interest held by its joint venture partner, Minco, for $19.4m.

Sector peers Fresnillo, Antofagasta Randgold, Lonmin, ENRC, Kazakhmys, BHP Billiton and Anglo American were also firmer, tracking metals prices higher.

Marks & Spencer was the worst performer despite seeing sales (excluding VAT) rise by 3.2% in the 13 weeks to 2 July, compared with the year before. Like-for-like (lfl) sales in the UK were flat on the general merchandise sales side, in line with the prediction made by broker Matrix Group, while food sales grew 3.3% on a lfl basis yoy, ahead of Matrix's forecast of 3.0% growth.

Interdealer broker ICAP, the largest in the world, saw revenue fall by 4% in the first quarter, hampered by a slow start and tough comparators last year, but expects things to pick up for the rest of the year. Shares fell lower.

Chocolate maker and retailer Thorntons fell into the red after sales for the 8 weeks ended 25 June down £1.9m to £20.6m.

 

The European Union's emergency summit to be held on 11 July may shed some light on the details of the Eurogroup's initial proposals, possibly including elements critical to address the contagion risks, Barclays Capital Research said in a note released on Wednesday.

The brokerage's analysts said the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a special purpose vehicle designed as a bailout fund, could be endowed with further lending resources and the ability to purchase government bonds in the secondary market.

The analysts arrived at this conclusion following the Eurogroup's statement which confirmed that more flexibility should be provided to the capacity and scope of the EFSF.

These (missing) elements are critical to address contagion risks in the EGB markets, Barclays Capital analysts said.

Stocks rose in early dealings as investors looked beyond the continuing woes in Europe to focus on strong economic growth in China.

China's gross domestic product expanded at a faster than expected rate of 9.5% in the quarter to June from the same time a year earlier. The figure is down from 9.7% in the previous quarter but ahead of analyst forecasts of 9.3%.

A separate report showed industrial production rose at a stronger than expected rate of 15.1% last month and retail sales expanded 17.7%.

In the latest twist in the Eurozone saga, Moody's lowered its rating Irish debt to junk status.

In company news, newspaper giant, News Corporation, slightly higher today, has dropped its bid for British broadcaster BSkyB, following the phone-hacking scandal that resulted in the closure of NewsCorp's News of the World.

Search engine giant Google, online bookseller Amazon and film streaming specialist Netflix are benefiting from favourable coverage from JP Morgan Chase, which starts coverage on the stocks with "overweight" ratings.

Lastly, and also benefitting stocks, in his semi-annual report to Congress, at 3PM, Federal Reserve President Ben S.Bernanke has again outlined what additional measures the monetary authority might undertake should its central scenario for a recovery in economic growth not be borne out by events. Perhaps only naturally enough market participants are increasingly attaching greater importance to these kinds of remarks of late.

In his semi-annual appearance before the US Congress, Federal Reserve president Ben Bernanke outlined measures that could be adopted in case his estimates for a pick-up in economic activity are not met.

Among these possible measures is a third round of quantitative easing.

The market's reaction was immediate. The main benchmark indices doubled their gains to an average of 1% compared to the +0.5% gain at the open.

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 14th June 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Tue, 14/Jun/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Sterling pushed to over a week high against the euro yesterday pushing to around €1.1360

as concerns over the euro zone debt crisis coupled with expectations of rising inflation

figures in the UK strengthened the pound. Eurozone policymakers are yet to come to an

agreement as to whether private investors would be a part of the Greek debt re-structuring.

Greece has now been branded with the world’s lowest credit rating by ratings agency

Standard & Poor’s, who have stated that they feel that Greece is becoming ‘increasingly

likely’ to face debt re-structuring leading to the first sovereign default in the euro zone’s

history. Greece’s rating now stands at CCC.

Yesterday was a quiet day for data release, volatility was kept to a minimum in some of the

major pairings. Against the dollar, sterling also rose and looked supported near-term,

reaching a day high $1.6389, staying above its 100-day moving average at $1.6246 and well

above a low of $1.6215 hit on Friday in response to figures showing a sharp contraction in

UK industrial output.

Investors eyes will be fixed on inflation figures and the Bank of England reaction surrounding them. CPI is predicted to come in unchanged at 4.5% for May but even if inflation figures rise it may see

Sterling make initial gains, however these gains may not be sustained if the Bank of England don’t

respond by raising rates in the nearer term.

"Even if we get strong inflation data, say 4.7%, it's very unlikely the majority of the

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee are going to start voting for a rate hike," said a senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

A recent run of weak UK data has forced the Bank of England to push a rise in interest rates back, and

markets are not pricing in a rise until at least April 2012, as they fear that a rise in rates

would be detrimental to the Economic growth in the UK.

Other data release today includes Producer Price Index in the US, which is expected to show

a slight reduction from 0.8% in April to 0.1% in May, and retail sales in the US are expected

to drop from 0.5% in April to -0.3% in May. Wednesday will see a U.K gilt auction, with

£2.25billion worth of debt being auctioned off.

 

IN THE UK

  • Sterling pushed to 1 week high against the euro €1.1360 yesterday
  • Although a quiet day for data release the pound held against the dollar moving to a day high $1.6389
  • Strong inflation data may see sterling gain initially, but the interest rate reaction will be the key to sustaining any gains.
  • A recent run of poor UK data has made a rate hike unlikely until April 2012, due to the fear that a rate hike could be detrimental to economic growth

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Euro Zone debt crisis sees Euro weaken across the board.
  • Policymakers in the Eurozone are yet to come to an agreement as to whether private investors will be a part of debt re-structuring
  • Ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgrade Greece, and have now been branded with the World's lowest rating of CCC, as the likelihood of a debt re-structure looks increasingly
  • Yesterday Spanish and Portuguese bond auctions come under pressure, the Portuguese 10 year yield has hit its highest level since the beginning of the euro in 1999
  • The US continues to be in considerable debt problems as the government sit at their $14.3 trillion debt limit, the Treasury’s Tim Geithner has urged Congress to raise the limit, but in the meantime ‘extraordinary measures’ have been untaken to reduce the Treasury’s exposure.
  • Belgium face a possible downgrade today.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • A busy day for data today starts with UK inflation figures, Retail Price Indexes and Consumer Price Indexes. Some sources expect the numbers to cool off a little and this would help support the argument to not increase UK interest rates. If this is the case then the pound would probably lose any of its recent gains. If prices remain high then the pound should maintain its current levels or even rise.
  • CB leading Indicators released at 10.00 give an overall view of the UK economic conditions.
  • At 1.30pm in the US Producer Price Index and Retail Sales are released, like the UK, the figures will give an indication of how the economy is performing and how price pressures are effecting the economy. The US is unlikely to raise rates this year so it would be helpful for policy if inflation remains near target.
  • New Car Sales are released in Canada at 1.30pm and are expected to fall slightly.
  • Retail Sales figures are released in NZ late this evening and are expected to show a big improvement from the previous quarter.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

14th June 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6424

1.1359

1.5449

1.6008

1.3750

8.4708

8.8750

10.34

11.08

132.042

USD

 

1.4462

0.9406

0.9747

0.8372

5.1576

5.4037

6.30

6.75

80.396

EUR

0.6915

 

1.3601

1.4093

1.2105

7.4573

7.8132

9.10

9.76

116.244

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19th July 2010 Pension Foreign Exchange Report QROPS & QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Mon, 19/Jul/2010

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.    

Sterling fell against the Euro on Friday hitting it’s lowest level since June 1st as rising European money market rates and higher equities increased demand for the European single currency.

Positive data from the US (corporate earnings) mixed in with some poor US data has helped to increase risk appetite and this has driven the euro forward, particularly against the US Dollar.

The pounds losses against the euro helped to pull the euro away from a two and a half month high against the US dollar hit on Thursday, however the euro has continued to gain over the weekend hitting a high of $1.2941 early this morning.

Analysts said sterling's slide versus the dollar, which clips a three-day winning streak, suggested that investors are taking a breather from the pound's rise since mid-May as speculators unwind extreme short positions in the currency.

In the past few weeks confidence in the US dollar which is seen as a safe haven has waned, coupled with an increase in confidence and therefore risk appetite sterling has done particularly well. Analysts and investors said that seasonal liquidity in the markets was helping to exaggerate sterling’s moves and was leaving the pound a little stretched.

By mid afternoon on Friday sterling had lost 0.8% against the euro and was trading at €1.1852 having retraced losses of 0.2% from €1.1823.

The bank to bank lending rates mentioned earlier were cited as the reason for the Euros strong performance.

Against the US dollar sterling fell 0.7% to $1.5344 dropping off a high of $1.5473 hit briefly on Thursday its strongest since April.

Sterling has benefitted in the last week from data showing a significant fall in the number of people claiming UK unemployment benefit in June, which has raised optimism that an improving labour market will support the economy's recovery.

This contrasted with a series of sluggish US economic reports, including a drop in wholesale prices in June and a slowdown in manufacturing announced on Thursday. This poor US data has raised concerns that the US recovery may be slackening.

Analysts said sterling would more than likely extend near-term gains on expectations the

UK economy would ultimately benefit from tough spending cuts planned by the new coalition government, while negative dollar sentiment may provide an additional boost.

This week The US Federal Reserve chairman’s testimony to Congress, in which he is expected to air his concerns over the strength of the US recovery, is likely to dominate the week’s economic announcements

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

 

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