Person Career

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• Sterling initially rose against the euro yesterday after Greek politicians struggled to agree on bailout terms which increased concern over the sovereign debt crisis and made investors return to safe haven assets, the pound rose from the session low of €1.2033 to reach the high of €1.2099..
• Sterling initially lost ground against the US dollar in early trade but retraced its losses in the afternoon moving away from the low of $1.5729 to end the session near the high of $1.5840.
• Concern mounts that even though the UK has seen a recent run of stronger-than-expected economic data which has supported sterling, this may be not be enough to dissuade the BoE policy members from announcing an increase in QE at their monthly policy meeting on Thursday.  

ELSEWHERE

• The deadline set for the Greek government yesterday to agree terms of a second bailout was missed. They must now give a decision before Eurozone finance ministers next meet. Despite missing deadlines the euro continues to find support and a new “final” deadline still seems to be next Monday, if we don’t have progress by tomorrow a break below $1.30 against the US dollar seems likely.
• French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel presented a united front yesterday, proposing the setting up of an account for Greece’s interest payments to guarantee lenders are paid in full.
• Moody’s investor services said that the outcome of the EU summit in January failed to encourage an improved outlook for the Eurozone and highlighted the risk for contagion as the region faces additional credit rating downgrades in 2012.
• The ECB are expected to maintain a dovish stance at its monthly rate decision meeting held on Thursday as speculation mounts we may see another interest rate cut.
• A Eurozone recession could almost halve Chinese growth this year, according to the IMF Chinas economy will grow by 8.2% this year but warns a recession in the Eurozone could cut this to 4.2%. Beijing should get ready to inject billions of USD into the economy to fend off any downturn. .
• BOJ Shirakawa has commented saying that current deflation and the Yen strength are very ‘severe’ and that steady policy needs to be implemented by investigating economic conditions.
• JPY weakened for the third time in four days against the dollar and euro as government data showed Japan carried out so called stealth intervention to weaken the currency in November, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he won’t rule out any options to curb the currencies appreciation.
• In late trade yesterday the US dollar weakened significantly, falling over a cent to 1.3136 against the euro, a fall mirrored against the pound. Reports surfaced that the US debt situation is ‘Very Serious’ and ‘Crisis Mode’ could develop quickly.
• Perhaps the most surprising news of the last 24hrs is Australian central banks decision to leave interest rates on hold at 4.25% at 3.30am (GMT) this morning. With less than ideal employment, retails sales and housing market conditions, the markets were fully expecting a drop to 4.0%. The drop never emerged and AUD has strengthened by up to 1.0% against all of the majors pairs. GBPAUD now trades at 1.4650 and AUDUSD is just under 1.08.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Another fairly quiet day of data today and markets again will be driven by developments in the Eurozone.
• Germany release industrial production at 11.00am which is expected to rise for both MoM and YoY.
• The US releases consumer credit change for December at 8pm this shows the amount of money that individuals borrow, this is expected to fall to $7.30B from $20.37b previous.
• Meanwhile, in the absence of US data today, the only key event in the US is Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. We expect him to maintain the Fed’s dovish tone regarding the US economic outlook, despite the stronger than expected January non-farm payrolls.  
• At 11:30pm Australia releases Westpac Consumer Confidence for February.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• Sterling gained against a broadly weaker euro on Monday, ahead of an EU summit in Brussels, with investors cautious as talks continued between Greece and private creditors on a debt swap deal.  The pound pushed up from a day low 1.1901 to a day high 1.1974.
• Sterling fell against the dollar, tracking falls in EURUSD after a run of gains that have taken the pound above $1.57 from below $1.54 in mid-January. Traders and analysts saw levels above $1.57 as a good opportunity to take profit on those gains, which sterling fall to a day low 1.5654. 
• Sterling may come under pressure later this week if purchasing managers' surveys (PMIs) for January on the manufacturing, construction and services sectors add to the picture of a weakening economy and increase the prospect of more monetary easing from the Bank of England.
• Overnight GFK Consumer confidence gave Sterling a boost, as the figure showed an improvement to -29 in December, from -33 in November.  Sterling moved up from 1.5700 to 1.5774, its highest since November 21st after the data release.

ELSEWHERE

• EU chiefs arrived in Brussels yesterday to put the finishing touches on a German-led deficit-control treaty and to endorse the statutes of a 500 billion-euro ($656 billion) rescue fund to be set up this year.
• European finance officials began discussions on Sunday that a deal that Greece and its private creditors expect to complete in the coming days, after bondholders signalled they would accept government demands for a bigger cut in their debt holdings.
• European leaders failed to finalise Greece’s second aid programme because talks with banks over debt reduction aren’t completed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.  The Euro fell from a day high 1.3185  to 1.3076 against the dollar as investors sought safe haven currencies
• German Consumer Price Index figure for January showed a negative figure compared to December.  The -0.4% was down from 0.7% in December, but was slightly better than the estimated -0.5% expected.
• This morning German retail sales were significantly down, the figure was expected to be a positive 0.8%, however Decembers figure showed a -1.4% decline which was worse than the -1% recorded in November.
• US stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, as European leaders sparred with Greece over a second rescue program.  Some investors believe “The question isn’t whether or not Europe goes into a recession, but how deep that recession is going to be,”
• An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area rose to 93.4 from a revised 92.8 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the first increase since February 2011, though it’s less than the median prediction of 93.8.
• The yen strengthened against all of its major counterparts as concern increased Greek bailout negotiations will hinder efforts to resolve the financial crisis, boosting demand for haven assets.  The yen appreciated 1.2 percent to 100.15 per euro at 10:08 a.m. in New York and touched 99.99, the lowest level since Jan. 23.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• At 10.00am European Unemployment rate is expected to show a slight increase from 10.3% in November to 10.4% in December.
• At 3.00pm US Consumer Confidence figures for January are expected to show an improvement from 64.5 in December to 68.0

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• After yesterday morning being dominated by high and medium tier data, today sees only one release from the UK in the form of our CBI Realised sales figures, which shows the sales volume for the month and is forecast to show a slowdown in consumer buying.
• Yesterday saw erratic price movement as GBP/USD moved between the prices of $1.5618 and $1.5529, however overnight saw a volatile jump as cable breached the $1.56 level and posted a high of $1.5677, finding support around the $1.5650 level and resistance of the physiological level of $1.57.
• Yesterday saw the release of the UK MPC meeting minutes, the MPC voted 9 to nil in favour of keeping the asset purchasing program on hold, despite some other data in the month that pointed towards growth. There were comments in the minutes that suggest the door is still open for further QE, however not until the remainder of the program has been completed.
• UK Preliminary GDP for Q4 last year was released yesterday and showed that the UK economy slowed and contracted by -0.2% against the forecast -0.1% as the UK experiences the slowest recovery from a recession since the 1930’s. Fuelling speculation that the UK could be heading towards a double dip recession, so eyes will be firmly on economic data being released. Remembering, two consecutive negative GDP quarter readings mean that the nation is in a recession once more. 

ELSEWHERE

• Yesterday evening the FOMC statement released their statement which fuelled volatile trading as the Fed, left the door wide open for ultra-loose monetary policy for at least the next three years, releasing comments such as “monetary policy will remain highly accommodative” signalling that they are open to further their asset purchasing program. They also predicted that the interest rates for the nation will remain low until 2014 and set a formal inflation objective target as 2%, previous prediction for interest rates was that they would remain low until mid 2013, so the window is widening. 
• On release of the FOMC statement EUR/USD climbed over 1 cent and GBP/USD held a rally of just under a cent, as investor confidence in the dollar suffered, however this news is positive for equities and investors. This could suggest that the market was not expecting the openness of the FED to fire up the printing presses once more in a bid to support the economy.
• The euro gains against the USD however could be limited if Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, were to make further comments about the ECB’s own commitment to low interest rates. There are views in the market place that the ECB could cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points in the coming months.
• US Pending Home Sales data released yesterday missed expectations massively, posting a figure of -3.5% against a forecast reading of -0.6% showing that the number of pending sales contracts on homes are slowing down in the nation.
• The Japanese Yen weakened against all major currencies yesterday due to weaker Japanese data and stronger risk appetite. Japans first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years asks the question how long can the nation rely on its exports to help finance its huge public debt, without the need to turn to foreign investors.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, decides to keep rates on hold at 2.50%.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• German Consumer Confidence figure released this morning shows better than expected results posting a figure of 5.9 against an expected 5.6.
• US Core Durable Goods month on month figures are released today expecting to post a gain of 0.9%.
• US Unemployment Claims are being released today at 13.30pm expecting to post a figure of 371K.
• New Home Sales in the US being released at 3pm to show a slight increase from last month’s figure of 315k to 321k. 
• Inflationary data being released overnight from Japan both of which are expected to show declines. 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.