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QROPS 12th October 2011 pension drawdown QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

We saw Sterling dip against the dollar on Tuesday as investors took profit on the previous

session's rally in risk assets, and it looked vulnerable to further selling after mixed economic

data released failed to alleviate concerns about poor UK economic fundamentals.

Manufacturing Output data for August released on Tuesday presented a mixed picture of UK

growth, with industrial output unexpectedly rising 0.2% on the month while

manufacturing output dropped 0.3%. Sterling showed little reaction immediately after

the data, but did post a trading low of $1.5602.

"All in all the data was a mixed bag, there was a small discrepancy between industrial

production and manufacturing. But overall the trend is still for lower production and that

should really not benefit the pound," said an analyst at Danske Markets.

The pound has rallied since hitting a 14-month low last week on news the Bank of England

would restart its asset purchase scheme, known as quantitative easing (QE), sooner than

expected to try and kick-start Britain's ailing economy.

But analysts said lacklustre economic data and comments by Bank of England policymaker David Miles

defending QE added to the impression UK monetary policy could remain extremely loose for

some time.

The Euro fell from its highs against the USD as Slovakian lawmakers prepared to vote on a

proposal to revalue the regions bailout package, however the Vote was postponed due to a

coalition partner SaS held back from the vote. The 17-nation Euro slumped even as a

European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank team approved

the next tranche of aid to Greece.

“We are seeing a bit of correction in the Euro after yesterday’s move up,” said a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. “There are some concerns about the Slovakian

vote. While the bottom line is that they will eventually approve it, it might be delayed, and

that creates more uncertainty.”

Across the pond was very quiet, as no major or mid-level data was released as traders

returned to the office after yesterday being a national bank holiday in the form of Columbus

Day.

Looking forward to today the major pieces of data are being released from the UK and the

US. The first comes from the UK in the form of the Claimant count of which is being released

at 9.30am which is then followed by the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 7.00pm where

the market will be paying close attention to the tones of the language used.

 

IN THE UK

  • The pound falls against the dollar over the course of trading session falling from a high of $1.5664 to post a low of $1.5581.
  • A mixed bag of data released from the UK in the morning showed Manufacturing output for the month of August missed expectations but Industrial production beat expectations.
  • NEISR Flash GDP estimate released at 0.5% against a previous posted 0.4%.
  • The negative sentiment towards the BoE’s shock increase to QE last Thursday is wearing off and is now seen as a positive to the pound.
  • UK Claimant Count rises by 17,500, slightly better than the forecasted 23,900. On a less positive note, the ILO Unemployment Rate rises to 8.1%, showing business conditions in the UK remain bleak
  • EU member Barrosa has been urging the UK to help in the second Greek bailout, so far the UK have stood their ground apart from the obligations through its IMF membership.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Greece gets their 6th tranche of bailout package confirmed from the ECB even though they will miss their 2011 targets and be in recession for longer.
  • The Euro fell from highs of €1.1510 to post a daily low of €1.1435.
  • Trichet makes a statement that the Eurozone debt contagion has become systemic and is a real risk for the region.
  • Slovakia fails to reach agreement on the revised plans for EFSF due to one of the coalition partners, Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) completely abstained from the vote.
  • Canadian Housing Starts beats expectations to post a figure of 206k against an expected 176k originally forecast. 
  • No economic data released from the US as they return to the office after Monday’s bank holiday. 

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

  • Eurozone Industrial production to be released at 10am expected to post a figure of -0.8% against previous months reading of -0.9%.
  • In the US they are due to release the FOMC minutes for the previous interest rate meeting 3 weeks ago, where the market will be paying attention to the tone of comments made.
  • ECB’s Trichet address a conference at the AFME in London this evening at 7.30pm
  • Minutes from Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting are released overnight.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

12th October 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5663

1.1402

1.5592

1.6149

1.4154

8.4922

8.8856

12.1880

10.40

12.22

120.009

USD

 

1.3727

0.9955

1.0310

0.9037

5.4218

5.6730

7.78

6.64

7.80

76.619

EUR

0.7280

 

1.3675

1.4163

1.2414

7.4480

7.7930

10.69

9.12

10.72

105.253

 

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 4th August 2011 Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions & Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Sterling began Wednesday morning on the front foot as it briefly hit a two month high

against the Euro. Traders put this positive movement down to concerns that the European

debt crisis could creep over into larger economies such as Spain and Italy. A further

acceleration against the single currency was restricted by a strong demand from UK

importers to purchase above the 1.15 level. Another stumbling block came in the form of

EUR/CHF strength, which derived from the Swiss National Bank announcing measures (in the

form of an interest rate cut), to slow recent appreciation in its currency.

“Sterling is essentially reacting to everything else going on…it is a play between major

currencies and is being pulled between them, said an economist at AIB

Group Treasury in Dublin.

Investors have found it hard of late to have a sustained interest in the Pound. The

International Monetary Fund commented on Monday that more quantitative easing may be

required to kick-start growth in the UK economy. This is an opinion shared by many in the

market as the disappointing data releases of late have been the norm.

The release of the PMI Services data came as a welcome relief to the recent trend of

economic information emerging out of the UK. The figure surprised analysts who had

expected a slowdown in activity. It rose to 55.4 in July from 53.9 in June (a figure above 50

indicates growth). A slight negative could be taken from a cut in jobs within the service

sector, especially as the previous two months had enjoyed an increase in employment. The

strongest increase in activity in services was seen in the Business Services and IT sectors

whereas hotels, catering and restaurants saw their growth slow.

“Yet again it’s the segments most exposed to consumers’ lack of disposable income that

suffered most, and all businesses are being hit by inflation and rising utility bills,” said the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and supply.

The Pound reacted positively to the data release, most notably against the U.S. Dollar. With

only a few minutes remaining before the close of the day, GBP/USD had hit a high of

$1.6474, a fingertip away from a two month high of $1.6477 (achieved earlier in the week).

The Greenback was pushed in all directions by the release of both positive and negative

economic data. MBA Mortgage Applications were seen as a positive as was the ADP

Employment Change. The negatives arrived in the form of a fall of 0.4% in the Factory

Orders and a change of 1.3M in EIA Crude Oil Stocks. A sigh of relief was heard across the

pond as President Barack Obama signed legislation to increase the US debt ceiling, thus

averting a financial default. It raises the debt limit by up to $2.4tn (£1.5tn) from $14.3tn and

makes savings of at least $2.1tn in 10 years. The resolution of the stand-off, failed to inspire

financial markets as the Dow Jones has fallen consistently for eight straight days. Credit

rating agency Moodys reacted by placing the US’s credit score as under a negative outlook.

The market will now look to the unemployment figures released out of the States on Friday

as an indication for near-term Dollar movement.

 

IN THE UK

 

  • PMI Services data unexpectedly shows UK services sector grew last month and is at 4 month high. Growth is  seen in the Business Services & IT, whilst a fall recorded in the hotels and restaurant sector
  • GBP/USD rises to 8 week high at 1.6405 whilst GBP/EUR falls, but still close to earlier 2 month high.
  • Pound jumps vs. Swiss Franc after SNB interest rate announcement.
  • The pound remains over comfortably over 1.50 against the strong AUD just breaking the 1.5400 mark as I type.

 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • Overnight the Yen tumbles as the Japanese Government and central bank intervene to help reduce its value, currently we are seeing this working well as the yen has depreciated by over 3.0% against a number of currencies since the London market opened.
  • The Bank of Japan has increased their asset purchase fund from 5 trillion Yen to 15 trillion Yen to help the economy after the recent natural disasters.
  • US ISM Non Manufacturing follows the earlier release in the week and show another decline.
  • The SNB have acknowledged the Swiss Franc is uncomfortably high and drop their interest rates to 0.25% to help weaken the currency. This morning it appears to have worked to some degree.
  • Purchasing Manager Index Services (Jul) from Germany saw a retreat to 52.9 from the 56.7 seen in June.  
  • The Euro found some unusual support from the Swiss National Bank, as appetite increased off the back of the rate cut announcement.
  • Dow Jones down for eight straight days.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 

  • Headline data today is the release of the both the BoE’s and ECB’s interest rate decision meeting results. Both central banks are expected to leave rates on hold at their respective 0.5% and 1.5% but rumours have been circulating about the slim possibility the UK may increase their quantitative easing package from its current £200bn, the markets have not priced in this in and if it does transpire the pound will sustain heavy losses, however the chances are very low.
  • ECB Press Conference held by Jean Claude Trichet after the ECB rate decision may reveal some surprises to Eurozone policy.
  • At 1.30pm US Continuing and Initial Jobless claims are released. Both figures may help to reveal how tomorrow far more important Non Farm Payrolls release may go.  

 

Current Spot Rates (9.30am)

4th August 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6357

1.1472

1.5374

1.5824

1.2729

8.5442

8.8263

12.7580

10.46

11.12

130.678

USD

 

1.4262

0.9399

0.9674

0.7782

5.2236

5.3960

7.80

6.39

6.80

79.891

EUR

0.7012

 

1.3401

1.3794

1.1096

7.4479

7.6938

11.12

9.12

9.69

113.910

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS Update 13th May 2011 Pension Foreign Exchange Report QROPS & QNUPS

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.

 

After Wednesday’s Inflation report, we saw sterling rally on the back of hints from Mervyn

King of higher inflation, bringing back to the table, the subject of interest rate hikes. In

contrast yesterday’s weak UK industry data brought back the debate of whether it would be

a good move to do so, on top of the fact that UK growth was downgraded also on

Wednesday.

Sterling fell to a 3-week low against the dollar, which bolstered expectations that interest

rates will be kept at a record low this year because of a fragile economy. We saw the pound

plummet to a session trough of $1.6233, its weakest level since mid-April.

Adding to our woes, data showed UK industrial output rose 0.3% in March after a 1.2% fall in February, which was less than the 0.8% gain by economists.

So, as mentioned, after Wednesdays report had boosted sterling and the chances of a rate

hike, Thursday’s data had forced markets to reassess the situation, with a rate hike again

being pushed back to the end of the year or early 2012.

Over in Europe, however, the International Monetary Fund said the ECB should tread

carefully on interest rates, after ECB policy maker, Juergen Stark left little doubt that a

further rate hike was on the agenda. The IMF was said to be ready to aide Greece if needed,

but urged the ECB to play its part by taking a cautious approach to interest rate increases.

"We need to keep in mind that the recovery in the euro area is under way, but it is not

extraordinarily strong or dangerously strong, so there is no reason from that perspective to

start tightening (monetary policy) sharply”, said the IMF’s European Department Director,

Antonio Borges.

In the US, data showed that their economy had struggled to gain momentum early in the

second quarter, with retail sales posting their smallest gain in nine months in April as high

food and energy prices took their toll and drove away spending from other areas, although

upward revisions to March’s data suggested consumer spending might have been stronger

than initially thought.

“The rise in retail sales were basically related to higher gasoline prices. Overall the report

was good because it was positive, but the economy and consumers are still having trouble”,

said a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, NC.

In addition, other data also showed new claims for jobless aid had fallen 44K to a seasonally

adjusted 434K last week, but remained too high to point to a strong labour recovery.

 

IN THE UK

 

  • Sterling hits 3-week low versus dollar after weak UK industrial data, hitting a low of $1.6233, its weakest since mid-April
  • Weak UK industrial data provides realisation that UK rates could stay at record low until at least late 2011 or early 2012 in stark contrast to hawkish comments from Bank of England’s King on Wednesday which drove GBP buyers into a frenzy.
  • Analysts see a fall towards $1.60 as investors continue to price out additional rate increase by Bank of England
  • UK output rises 0.3% in March less than 0.8% forecast by economists 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • ECB policy member, Stark, leaves little doubt that a further rate hike is on the drawing board
  • The IMF strongly urges the ECB to tread carefully when approaching the subject of interest rates.
  • The monthly ECB bulletin reiterates the ECB will continue to monitor “very closely” the developments and the upside risks to inflation
  • Article in Financial Times said Irish and Greek bailouts have simply not worked.
  • The US sees its Retails Sales rise 0.5%, ex gasoline up 0.2%, with core retail sales gaining 0.2%
  • US Initial Jobless claims fall to 434K but not enough to point to a strong recovery in US labour market.
  • Norges Bank raised rates yesterday by 25bps as expected, but did not reveal future outlook.
  • German Q1 GDP figures released this morning much better than expected, along with good figures from France helps the euro make gains early this morning.  

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 

  • Another fairly busy day for data today continues with another speech from ECB’s President Jena Claude Trichet. The tone of last week’s speech was far more dovish than expected and caused the euro to fall significantly, will the tone be any different today.
  • Collective Eurozone Q1 GDP figures are released at 10.00am and follow from the individual figures from earlier, Trichet said last Friday he expects to see continued growth, the results of will form a major topic in Trichet’s speech and could cause to retrace recent losses.
  • At 1.30pm US Consumer Price Index is published, another indicator of inflation and is also likely to show a rise in prices.
  • 2.55pm sees the release of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and will show how consumers on the street feel about the economic outlook, a high reading is good for the USD and this month the figure is expected to rise slightly to 70.0 from 69.8 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

13th May 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6296

1.1389

1.5223

1.5663

1.4361

8.4930

8.9252

10.22

11.23

131.326

USD

 

1.4308

0.9342

0.9612

0.8813

5.2117

5.4769

6.27

6.89

80.588

EUR

0.6989

 

1.3366

1.3753

1.2610

7.4572

7.8367

8.97

9.86

115.310

 

 Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

 

 

 

QROPS update 28th April 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Wednesday saw the pound surge ahead of both the dollar and euro after official data

showed the UK economy expanded 0.5% in the first three months of 2011. Against the dollar

the pound increased as much as 0.6% to hit a session high on 1.6577. The euro also dropped

0.6% against sterling causing GBP/EUR to hit a session high of 1.1301 before recovering and

spending most of the day around the 1.1280 level.

Before the data sterling had been weaker against both the euro and dollar, being held down

by talk in the market of a weaker than expected number. In actual fact the data was figure

was broadly in line with consensus forecasts surprising some in the market and therefore

boosting sterling.

“There were rumours of a 0.3% increase, which meant that the 0.5% reading was actually

better than the market had expected,” said Rabobank in London who forecasts

further gains for sterling.

Interestingly some strategists don’t think the GDP data was strong enough to bring forward

the Bank of England to raise interest rates. “As the bank of England had been forecasting a

0.8% rise in growth for the first quarter, the growth numbers today should act as the final

nail in the coffin for a May interest rate” said an  European economist at

Schroder Investment Management. The smart money is on the Bank of England to start

raising rates in November, which is going to help cap any sterling rally in the coming months.

Across the pond we saw new orders for durable goods rise 2.5% to $208.4bn last month,

slightly ahead of expectations; this was the third straight month of rising orders. However all

eyes were focused firmly on what the Bernanke press conference would reveal later on in

the evening as most are expecting the Federal Reserve to lag behind other central banks in

increasing their interest rates. This caused the dollar to slid to a 16 month low against the

euro as they are in stark contrast the ECB who raised rates for the first time since July 2008

and appears on a path to continued tightening.

 

IN THE UK

  • Sterling rises as UK Q1 GDP posts at +0.5%, UK avoids re-entering recession after last quarter’s disappointing 0.5% contraction.
  • GBP/EUR hits a high of €1.1301 and cable reaches a high of $1.6580.
  • A slight fly in the ointment comes as UK GfK consumer confidence drops to -31, the lowest since Feb 2009
  • Some strategist feel GDP figure merely coming in line with expectation is not enough to counter balance recent poor data releases, rumours are circulating that November is the earliest we will see a rate hike. If this speculation continues the pound will remain under bought and could stay low for a sustained period.  

ELSEWHERE

 

  • The US dollar gets battered from all sides as Fed President Bernanke pledges to keep interest rates near zero to stimulate growth.
  • The pound, euro, Kiwi and Aussie all reach multi month highs as US appears likely be the last major economy to raise rates.
  • EURUSD reaches $1.4881, the highest seen since late 2009  
  • Despite worried outlook, US durable goods rise for a third month climbing 2.5% after a 0.7% gain in the previous month
  • Eurozone members reaffirm further rate hikes may be warranted if inflation outlook deteriorates further, keeping the euro strong.
  • As US looks like policy will be kept ultra-loose possibly until Q3 2012, investors look to higher yielding currencies, in the short term this is likely to help EUR and AUD most, AUD currently set to test $1.10 level
  • Overnight Japan leaves interest rates on hold at 0.1%, no surprise given recent disaster and outlook.   

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

 US GDP is expected to drop significantly in Q1, the results released at 1.30pm could show a fall from 3.1% to 1.8%  

  • Also 1.30pm, US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims both can affect USD despite being less important than Non-Farm Payrolls data.
  • Fed member Dudley speaks at 1.30 and could continue dovish with undertones, shouldn’t have such a dramatic effect on dollar.
  • US Pending Home Sales concludes a busy day of US data and is also set to fall highlighting cracks in the housing market. 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

28th April 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6682

1.1240

1.5263

1.5814

1.4540

10.10

10.99

136.176

USD

 

1.4841

0.9149

0.9480

0.8716

6.05

6.59

81.630

 

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 7th February 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.

Sterling’s recent run of gains faltered in Friday trading as investors became cautious ahead the pending US jobs data which was released at 1:30pm.

The UK released positive housing data which showed house prices unexpectedly rose 0.8% in January which was well above market expectations for a flat reading. This data helps to ease some concerns over the housing sector but it still remains fragile after figures last week showed a large drop in mortgage approvals which is the main indicator for the market.

Sterling was given a helping hand last week as hawkish comments from the Bank of England kept adding fuel to the expectations the UK interest rates will rise from the current record low of 0.5%. The next Bank of England policy announcement is due on Thursday and this will be followed with the Bank’s quarterly inflation report due later in the month which may give more indication as to when a rate increase may occur.

 

"Sterling is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and any strong data or hawkish Bank of England comments will push it higher," said an economist at AIB Group Treasury in Dublin.

 

Elsewhere the US released Nonfarm payrolls which came in lot lower then expected, payrolls grew by a disappointing 36,000 in January which was a lot lower then the predicted figure of 145,000, the unemployment rate in the US now stands at 9% down from 9.4% in December. This meant investors retreated and returned to the safe haven of the dollar and less riskier assets.

Some market participants also cited the dollar’s rally was due to US 10 year treasury yield as a catalyst to drive demand in the dollar.

 

The pound moved away from the 3 month high of $1.6279 against the dollar which was achieved on Thursday. Sterling traded between $1.6170, the days high to end the day’s trading near the low of $1.6038.

 

The euro came under broad selling pressure on Thursday after the European

Central Bank President dampened expectations the euro zone will be next to look to a hike in interest rates. This allowed sterling to trade above the €1.18

level through-out the day and it reached a day’s high of €1.1868.

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

 

 

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