Japan

QROPS update 26th January 2012 Pension Drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Thu, 26/Jan/2012

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

 

  • After yesterday morning being dominated by high and medium tier data, today sees only one release from the UK in the form of our CBI Realised sales figures, which shows the sales volume for the month and is forecast to show a slowdown in consumer buying.
  • Yesterday saw erratic price movement as GBP/USD moved between the prices of $1.5618 and $1.5529, however overnight saw a volatile jump as cable breached the $1.56 level and posted a high of $1.5677, finding support around the $1.5650 level and resistance of the physiological level of $1.57.
  • Yesterday saw the release of the UK MPC meeting minutes, the MPC voted 9 to nil in favour of keeping the asset purchasing program on hold, despite some other data in the month that pointed towards growth. There were comments in the minutes that suggest the door is still open for further QE, however not until the remainder of the program has been completed.
  • UK Preliminary GDP for Q4 last year was released yesterday and showed that the UK economy slowed and contracted by -0.2% against the forecast -0.1% as the UK experiences the slowest recovery from a recession since the 1930’s. Fuelling speculation that the UK could be heading towards a double dip recession, so eyes will be firmly on economic data being released. Remembering, two consecutive negative GDP quarter readings mean that the nation is in a recession once more. 

 

ELSEWHERE

 

  • Yesterday evening the FOMC statement released their statement which fuelled volatile trading as the Fed, left the door wide open for ultra-loose monetary policy for at least the next three years, releasing comments such as “monetary policy will remain highly accommodative” signalling that they are open to further their asset purchasing program. They also predicted that the interest rates for the nation will remain low until 2014 and set a formal inflation objective target as 2%, previous prediction for interest rates was that they would remain low until mid 2013, so the window is widening. 
  • On release of the FOMC statement EUR/USD climbed over 1 cent and GBP/USD held a rally of just under a cent, as investor confidence in the dollar suffered, however this news is positive for equities and investors. This could suggest that the market was not expecting the openness of the FED to fire up the printing presses once more in a bid to support the economy.
  • The euro gains against the USD however could be limited if Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, were to make further comments about the ECB’s own commitment to low interest rates. There are views in the market place that the ECB could cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points in the coming months.
  • US Pending Home Sales data released yesterday missed expectations massively, posting a figure of -3.5% against a forecast reading of -0.6% showing that the number of pending sales contracts on homes are slowing down in the nation.
  • The Japanese Yen weakened against all major currencies yesterday due to weaker Japanese data and stronger risk appetite. Japans first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years asks the question how long can the nation rely on its exports to help finance its huge public debt, without the need to turn to foreign investors.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, decides to keep rates on hold at 2.50%.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

 

  • German Consumer Confidence figure released this morning shows better than expected results posting a figure of 5.9 against an expected 5.6.
  • US Core Durable Goods month on month figures are released today expecting to post a gain of 0.9%.
  • US Unemployment Claims are being released today at 13.30pm expecting to post a figure of 371K.
  • New Home Sales in the US being released at 3pm to show a slight increase from last month’s figure of 315k to 321k. 
  • Inflationary data being released overnight from Japan both of which are expected to show declines. 

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5685

1.1956

1.4740

1.5700

1.4429

8.8915

9.1652

12.1680

10.61

12.35

121.793

USD

 

0.7615

0.9398

1.0010

0.9199

5.6688

5.8433

7.76

6.76

7.87

77.649

EUR

1.3132

 

1.2329

1.3131

1.2068

7.4369

7.6658

10.18

8.87

10.33

101.868

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

QROPS update 1st December 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Thu, 01/Dec/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK 

·         The outstanding event of the day was a unanimous move by the central banks of the US, the UK, Switzerland, Japan, Canada and the ECB agreeing to reduce the interest rate on dollar liquidity swap lines by 50 basis points, immediately after the announcement, sterling moved higher towards a fresh weekly high of $1.5775 against the US dollar.

·         UK policy makers are becoming increasingly cautious regarding the economy as Chancellor George Osbourne insisted that current austerity measured kept the UK ahead of the curve compared to others facing threats from the Eurozone crisis.

·         Speculation mounted that the BoE will resort to a £100-150Bn extension of its asset purchase plan as Quantitative Easing is still the weapon of choice in the face of increasing likelihood of undershooting the 2% target for inflation. 

 

ELSEWHERE

·         The risks posed by the Eurozone crisis were epitomised by the first ever negative yield for German one year bonds, reaching a low of -0.07% as invested settled for the lesser of innumerable evils.

·         Rumours also surfaced suggesting that the ECB monetary policy meeting on December 8 could see a cut in the current 1.25% interest rates.

·         The Fed claimed the move to reduce rates on dollar swaps would “Ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.”

·         The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 3.1% by mid afternoon and of the 24 major commodities, only natural gas suffered a decline as markets reacted to the announcement on liquidity. All 16 currencies most traded against the Dollar also posted gains. The indication that central banks are willing to working together may bring some longevity to the resulting risk rally even if the effects were sudden.

·         After initially weakening as Eurofin conceded their bailout fund had been wide of the mark, the euro strengthened 1.1% against the US dollar to close the European session at $1.3465, having peaked at $1.3533 which marked the biggest intraday jump since lenders agreed a 50% write-down of Greek debt.

·         The biggest winners against the US Dollar were the Australian Dollar, which grew 2.7% to $1.0272 and the Brazilian Real, which grew 2.2% to B$1.8078. Canada’s dollar extended gains after data showed the nation’s economy grew at an annualized 3.5% in the third quarter beating the forecasted 3% and overall, the Loonie strengthened to a high of c$1.0187.

·         Early in the day S&P had cut debt ratings on lenders from BoA to Goldman Sachs to UBS but data on US business activity and employment and housing markets topped estimates.

·         The ADP Employer Services report showed companies added 206k, expected at 130k, workers in November bolstering optimism in the labour market.

·         The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, business activity expanded at fastest pace for 7 months signalling a continuation of the factory-led expansion.

·         Pending home sales were also up, 10.4% in October, recording their biggest gain for 12 months and 5 times the forecast.

·         China contributed to risk appetite as the People’s Bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.5% in order to spur growth. The move shows a reversal in policy which will augment the capital by some Rmb400bn ($63bn). 

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

·         11:30 The BoE Financial Stability Report will indicate how confident the central bank is regarding the stability of the  financial system as it stands and assess the risks it faces.

·         13:30 US Unemployment Claims are expected to number 390k. This indicator of newly unemployed is highly correlated to consumer spending and is therefore of great interest to many market participants.

·         15:00 After the Chicago index read positively yesterday, the ISM Purchase Manager’s Index, also from the States, is expected to follow suit with 

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5669

1.1653

1.5396

1.5996

1.4291

8.6620

9.0602

12.1800

10.63

12.80

121.459

USD

 

0.7531

0.9826

1.0209

0.9121

5.5281

5.7822

7.77

6.78

8.17

77.515

EUR

1.3278

 

1.3212

1.3727

1.2264

7.4333

7.7750

10.45

9.12

10.98

104.230

 

Key Support and Resistance Levels

 

 

 

 

Support

 

Resistance

GBPUSD

1.5292

1.5406

1.5551

 

1.5810

1.5924

1.6069

GBPEUR

1.1538

1.1590

1.1636

 

1.1736

1.1790

1.1837

EURUSD

1.3009

1.3133

1.3286

 

1.3563

1.3687

1.3840

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

QROPS update 25th November 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Fri, 25/Nov/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK

  • GDP figures released yesterday show the UK economy’s growth remains at 0.5% in the third quarter in line with expectations and matching the preliminary release. The breakdown of the data shows that underlying growth is weak as the growth was driving by a build-up of stock and government expenditure.
  • UK markets reopened this morning to find GBPUSD hovering around its 7 week low of $1.5470; Cable has been finding support at $1.5450 and resistance at $1.5801 which was Monday's high. The pound has been recently affected by fears in markets which has triggered demand on the dollar as a refuge.
  • Also pressuring sterling were comments from Bank of England policymaker Ben Broadbent, who said Britain risked sliding back into recession.
  • The UK’s firm triple A status has been tempting investors for some time now and UK Gilts prices have fallen below the rates given on German Bunds for the first time since 2009.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Sentiment remained depressed in thin trading markets yesterday. EUR/USD lost all of Wednesday's gains after the mini summit between Merkel, Sarkozy and Monti failed to deliver any agreement on Merkel's reluctance to launch the Euro-bonds.
  • Commodity-linked currencies also came under pressure against the dollar, with AUD/USD currently sitting at 6-week low of 0.9680
  • Reports out on Wednesday said that a Greek default is now mostly priced into the market and therefore we would only see a limited euro depreciation, Italy is of more concern due to the uncertainty and size of the economy
  • USDCHF showed volatile movements on the back of the mixed sentiment which gathered correctional movements and mounting concerns from the euro area, where volume was not high due to thanks giving holiday in the United States.
  • In a business day for data from Germany on Thursday we saw the economy expand robustly in the third quarter, GDP expanded 0.5 q/q in line with estimates. This was then followed by the some positive news that confidence among investors unexpectedly grew in November due to less sceptical expectations.
  • Portuguese efforts to come out of economic crisis suffered on Thursday as its credit rating was downgraded to ‘Junk’ status citing large fiscal imbalances, high debt and risks to its EU membership. This sent Portuguese 10-year bund prices surging to 13.85% - the second highest level in the Eurozone.
  • Consumer prices in Japan declined for the first time in four months in October, as concerns over a deepening debt crisis in Europe and the impact of strong yen on the economy dampened domestic demand. Core consumer prices that exclude price movements in fresh food fell 0.1% in the year to October, in line with economists' forecasts, data from the Statistics Bureau showed Friday.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

  • Today is a quiet day on the data front as a large portion of the US workforce will be continuing the Thanksgiving celebration and there are no significant releases in Europe.
  • Bank of England MPC member Martin Weale will speak at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
  • New Zealand is holding their 50th parliamentary elections.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

25th November 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5430

1.1636

1.5945

1.6217

1.4293

8.6516

9.1234

12.0270

10.78

13.22

119.431

USD

 

0.7544

1.0334

1.0510

0.9263

5.6070

5.9128

7.79

6.99

8.57

77.402

EUR

1.3255

 

1.3703

1.3937

1.2283

7.4352

7.8407

10.34

9.26

11.36

102.639

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 11th November 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Fri, 11/Nov/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK

  • The Bank of England held interest rates as expected at the record low of 0.5% and left quantitative easing unchanged at £275 billion. This came as no real surprise as in the past the Bank of England have preferred to see the full effect of the extra funding in the economy before making any further decisions.
  • Despite the troubles in the economy the pound has managed to show some strength during this recent turmoil as <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK government bonds are seen as a safe asset. The yield on 10-year UK bonds fell to a record low on Thursday on the back of demand for UK debt.
  • The average price of a home in England and Wales rose 0.2% from September to 220,056 pounds, the groups estimated in an e-mailed report in London today. The number of transactions fell 5.7%. In London, prices rose an annual 2.5% in the three months through October. 

 

ELSEWHERE

  • After a week of negotiations Lucas Papademos has stepped up and will be sworn in as Greece’s new Prime Minister. A former Vice President of European Central Bank, his credentials at the pinnacle of the finance community should help him repair Greece’s battered economy.
  • Following a better than expected Italian bond auction, the yield on 12 month Italian government bills has fallen slightly, helping to calm fears of Italian debt problems as government debt hit a euro-era high earlier in the week.
  • The announcement of a new government in Greece and the naming of a new leader has helped reduce risk aversion. Stock markets performed better in the Asian session this morning and European stocks have opened higher.
  • EUR/USD has followed suit and moved up, breaking through the $1.36 mark from an earlier one month low of $1.3482
  • Credit ratings agency Moody’s had to re confirm France’s Triple A rating as a falsely leaked memo said the nation had been downgraded. The French Finance Ministry have asked for a full investigation.
  • The European Commission said Eurozone growth is expected to slow down next year and may even slip into recession due to the prolonged debt crisis hurting investment in the Eurozone. Outlook has been lowered to 0.5% for next year down from the 1.8% forecast in Spring
  • Spanish debt seems to be holding up on the bond markets, the markets are largely ignoring the upcoming general election on Nov 20th and the potential new administration.
  • In Japan the authorities have been silently propping USD/JPY over the last few days, this helps to explain USD/JPY inability to test below 77.50, near to the benchmark the authorities seem to of set as near the max strength they will allow the Yen to be at.
  • New unemployment claims in the US fell in the first week in November, according to a report released by the Labor Department, with claims coming in below 400k, lower than the expectations of most economists.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

  • Veteran’s day in the US will mean the markets should be quieter than usual, although announcements involving the European debt crisis could have an impact on currency prices
  • UK Producer Price Index (input and output) figures are released this morning, generally high figures are good for the UK economy, but experts believe all 4 components of the figures will fall.
  • Preliminary gross domestic product estimates from Spain is the only major European news out today
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is released at 2.55pm in the US and consensus is for a slight improvement.

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

11th November 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5911

1.1656

1.5663

1.6240

1.4409

8.6753

9.0384

12.3780

10.60

12.61

123.118

USD

 

0.7322

0.9844

1.0207

0.9056

5.4524

5.6806

7.78

6.66

7.93

77.379

EUR

1.3658

 

1.3438

1.3933

1.2362

7.4428

7.7543

10.62

9.09

10.82

105.626

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QROPS update 8th November 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

Submitted by qrops on Tue, 08/Nov/2011

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK

  • GBP posts gains as the Eurozone struggles to cope with the debt crisis and Eurozone leaders are failing to come to grips with problems, increasing demand for GBP as a haven.
  • UK house prices increase in October, bucking the trend, and painting a mixed picture of the UK economy.
  • UK output index declined in October to 92.6 its lowest level since June 2009 to a level that indicates a ‘serious risk’ of recession.
  • Sterling gains vs. the Euro hitting a new high of 1.1683 falling away slightly in afternoon trade and closing the day at 1.1655.
  • Sterling finished the day flat against the dollar having traded in a 1 cent range between 1.5980 and 1.6079 closing the day at 1.6013.
  • One of the biggest gainers yesterday was GBP/CHF closing up more than 1% at 1.4441 the pound was helped by weak Swiss CPI figures.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Greek Prime minister George Papandreou is still in charge of Greece but has agreed to step down to make way for a coalition government.
  • Investors seemed less concerned about the antics in Greece yesterday as the woes of Italy returned to the trading floors. The 3rd biggest economy in the Eurozone is back under scrutiny as debt levels rise.
  • Senior Italian officials say Italy can withstand debt costs of 8% and still avoid default. Italian debt currently stands at 6.6%.
  • Italian Prime minister Silvio Berlusconi says that rumours of him stepping down are greatly exaggerated, however Italian parliament seems to have lost confidence ahead of vote tomorrow and pressure on him increases.
  • Japanese Yen intervention in markets fails to hold its nerve and loses momentum as chances of more intervention increase.
  • The Canadian dollar appreciates after price of crude oil hits a new 3 month high.
  • USD made some small gains against the euro yesterday off the back of the European uncertainty, closing the day at 1.3739 up 0.3%. 

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

  • Main focus today will be the EcoFin meeting today where the 27 finance ministers of EU will discuss monetary policy within the European Union, UK Chancellor George Osborne said this morning, a resolution for the Eurozone debt crisis must be reached immediately to avoid a financial disaster.
  • UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production Figures are released at 9.30 this morning, with data being fairly light for the UK this week, eyes will be focused on these figures and both annual figures are expected to show a slight improvement from last month which might help sterling maintain its good start to the week.
  • Canadian Housing Starts numbers are released at 1.15pm and forecast to fall to 201k from 205.9 last month, if correct it they won’t help CAD strength.
  • At 3.00pm NIESR publish their estimate for GDP figures for the last 3 months, the previous figure was 0.5%. Whilst this report is released before the official figures for UK GDP, this estimate can aaffect UK monetary policy and any major surprises can have repercussions on sterling strength.
  • Consumer Confidence figures in Australia and Trade Balance figures are released in Japan over night tonight 

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

8th November 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6081

1.1661

1.5564

1.6331

1.4474

8.6835

9.0157

12.4940

10.55

12.75

125.475

USD

 

0.7255

0.9679

1.0155

0.9001

5.3999

5.6064

7.77

6.56

7.93

78.027

EUR

1.3783

 

1.3347

1.4005

1.2412

7.4466

7.7315

10.71

9.05

10.93

107.602

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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