Greece

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• Sterling made slight gains against the US dollar as a bank holiday in the US eased trade volumes, however GBPUSD remained close to 18 month lows as ongoing concerns about the Eurozone, and in particular the ratings downgrades leave risk appetite at a low.
• The pound remained over the €1.20 mark against the euro, driven by concerns following the European downgrades late last week as well as the weight of Greece and their next bailout.
• Sterling has been driven by safe haven flows and this was increased by the ratings downgrades as investors swapped their Euro government debt for UK Gilts instead driving the price down very close to a new record low.
• The UK treasury has this morning announced plans to make London the leading inter nation trading centre for trading the Chinese Yuan, saying that as a gateway to Europe London is the perfect base for Asian banking and investment.
• House prices in England and Wales fell by 0.8% on the month (+0.4% on the year) in January, according to property website Rightmove, to £224,060. In December prices fell 2.7% on the month, to £225,766 (+1.5% on the year). 

ELSEWHERE

• Following yesterday's news that the Euro was close to an 11 year low against the Japanese Yen the pair swiftly broke that new record following investors seeking the safe haven Yen falling to 97.04. The Yen gained against 13 of its 16 key trading partners giving an indication of the knock on effect of the Eurozone downgrade.
• In news this morning the European Financial stability Fund (ESFS) has lost its triple A credit rating following the downgrade of France and Austria last week. The rating was cut to AA+ from AAA, S&P had warned that it may face a downgrade if it's guarantors lost their triple A status.
• Concerns over the latest Greek bailout and whether it will go through may ease on Wednesday, following the stalling of talks due to a disagreement about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds. Talks between Greece's Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, and Charles Dallara, the managing director of the Institute of International Finance, which represents private creditors, will resume Jan 18th.
• Canada's dollar rose against all but two of its 16 major peers on speculation its exports will benefit from accelerating U.S. economic growth. Reports on manufacturing from the Fed may show further growth later this week.
• In news this morning China's GDP fell to a 2 and a half year low but beat expectations posted allaying fears that China is set for a hard landing, this led to a selloff of safe haven currencies such as the US dollar and JPY and brought a touch of risk appetite back to the market.
• Off the back of the Chinese data this morning the Australian dollar posted some consistent gains against a host of currencies as investors foresaw a demand for commodities from China, Australia's biggest export market. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• A busy morning for data starts with UK Consumer Price Index figures and Retail Price Index figures at 9.30am. Inflation has been stubbornly high causing problems for the economy but today’s CPI reading is expected to fall slightly to 4.2% whilst RPI is forecast to fall to 4.8%
• Bank of England Governor Mervyn King speaks today at 10.00am.
• Eurozone Inflation figures are released at 10.00am, like the UK, annual inflation is expected to have fallen slightly to 2.8%.
• German ZEW survey is released at 10.00am and will give an indication of sentiment surround the German economy.
• Bank of Canada release their interest decision at 2.0pm, they are expected to leave rates on hold at 1%
• Westpac Consumer Confidence figures are released for December at 11.30pm

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• The Bank of England held interest rates as expected at the record low of 0.5% and left quantitative easing unchanged at £275 billion. This came as no real surprise as in the past the Bank of England have preferred to see the full effect of the extra funding in the economy before making any further decisions.
• Despite the troubles in the economy the pound has managed to show some strength during this recent turmoil as <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK government bonds are seen as a safe asset. The yield on 10-year UK bonds fell to a record low on Thursday on the back of demand for UK debt.
• The average price of a home in England and Wales rose 0.2% from September to 220,056 pounds, the groups estimated in an e-mailed report in London today. The number of transactions fell 5.7%. In London, prices rose an annual 2.5% in the three months through October. 

ELSEWHERE

• After a week of negotiations Lucas Papademos has stepped up and will be sworn in as Greece’s new Prime Minister. A former Vice President of European Central Bank, his credentials at the pinnacle of the finance community should help him repair Greece’s battered economy.
• Following a better than expected Italian bond auction, the yield on 12 month Italian government bills has fallen slightly, helping to calm fears of Italian debt problems as government debt hit a euro-era high earlier in the week.
• The announcement of a new government in Greece and the naming of a new leader has helped reduce risk aversion. Stock markets performed better in the Asian session this morning and European stocks have opened higher.
• EUR/USD has followed suit and moved up, breaking through the $1.36 mark from an earlier one month low of $1.3482
• Credit ratings agency Moody’s had to re confirm France’s Triple A rating as a falsely leaked memo said the nation had been downgraded. The French Finance Ministry have asked for a full investigation.
• The European Commission said Eurozone growth is expected to slow down next year and may even slip into recession due to the prolonged debt crisis hurting investment in the Eurozone. Outlook has been lowered to 0.5% for next year down from the 1.8% forecast in Spring
• Spanish debt seems to be holding up on the bond markets, the markets are largely ignoring the upcoming general election on Nov 20^th and the potential new administration.
• In Japan the authorities have been silently propping USD/JPY over the last few days, this helps to explain USD/JPY inability to test below 77.50, near to the benchmark the authorities seem to of set as near the max strength they will allow the Yen to be at.
• New unemployment claims in the US fell in the first week in November, according to a report released by the Labor Department, with claims coming in below 400k, lower than the expectations of most economists.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Veteran’s day in the US will mean the markets should be quieter than usual, although announcements involving the European debt crisis could have an impact on currency prices
• UK Producer Price Index (input and output) figures are released this morning, generally high figures are good for the UK economy, but experts believe all 4 components of the figures will fall.
• Preliminary gross domestic product estimates from Spain is the only major European news out today
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is released at 2.55pm in the US and consensus is for a slight improvement.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• GBP posts gains as the Eurozone struggles to cope with the debt crisis and Eurozone leaders are failing to come to grips with problems, increasing demand for GBP as a haven.
• UK house prices increase in October, bucking the trend, and painting a mixed picture of the UK economy.
• UK output index declined in October to 92.6 its lowest level since June 2009 to a level that indicates a ‘serious risk’ of recession.
• Sterling gains vs. the Euro hitting a new high of 1.1683 falling away slightly in afternoon trade and closing the day at 1.1655.
• Sterling finished the day flat against the dollar having traded in a 1 cent range between 1.5980 and 1.6079 closing the day at 1.6013.
• One of the biggest gainers yesterday was GBP/CHF closing up more than 1% at 1.4441 the pound was helped by weak Swiss CPI figures.

ELSEWHERE

• Greek Prime minister George Papandreou is still in charge of Greece but has agreed to step down to make way for a coalition government.
• Investors seemed less concerned about the antics in Greece yesterday as the woes of Italy returned to the trading floors. The 3^rd biggest economy in the Eurozone is back under scrutiny as debt levels rise.
• Senior Italian officials say Italy can withstand debt costs of 8% and still avoid default. Italian debt currently stands at 6.6%.
• Italian Prime minister Silvio Berlusconi says that rumours of him stepping down are greatly exaggerated, however Italian parliament seems to have lost confidence ahead of vote tomorrow and pressure on him increases.
• Japanese Yen intervention in markets fails to hold its nerve and loses momentum as chances of more intervention increase.
• The Canadian dollar appreciates after price of crude oil hits a new 3 month high.
• USD made some small gains against the euro yesterday off the back of the European uncertainty, closing the day at 1.3739 up 0.3%. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Main focus today will be the EcoFin meeting today where the 27 finance ministers of EU will discuss monetary policy within the European Union, UK Chancellor George Osborne said this morning, a resolution for the Eurozone debt crisis must be reached immediately to avoid a financial disaster.
• UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production Figures are released at 9.30 this morning, with data being fairly light for the UK this week, eyes will be focused on these figures and both annual figures are expected to show a slight improvement from last month which might help sterling maintain its good start to the week.
• Canadian Housing Starts numbers are released at 1.15pm and forecast to fall to 201k from 205.9 last month, if correct it they won’t help CAD strength.
• At 3.00pm NIESR publish their estimate for GDP figures for the last 3 months, the previous figure was 0.5%. Whilst this report is released before the official figures for UK GDP, this estimate can aaffect UK monetary policy and any major surprises can have repercussions on sterling strength.
• Consumer Confidence figures in Australia and Trade Balance figures are released in Japan over night tonight 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.