France

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• UK PMI Services data surprises the market coming in above consensus, the printed figure of 52.1 moved up from 51.3 last month.
• On a less positive note BRC ‘like-for-like’ sales decline to -1.6% (YoY) in November, the British Retail Consortium said consumers are keeping a tight rein on their spending, despite Christmas being so near.
• With high street sales falling, economists are concerned that the risks are great enough to push the UK economy back into recession.
• The pound had a mixed day against the dollar, initially seeing gains in the morning rising through the day to hit a high of $1.5708 before falling to $1.5636 during the US session.
• Against the euro, the pound had a relatively quiet day, progressively rising to hit a high of €1.1661 from a morning low of €1.1627.
• The UK housing market continued its bumpy ride as prices fell 0.9% between October and November, according to figures from the Halifax. There has now been an even split of monthly price rises and falls this year with five of each and one month of no change. House prices in the three months to November fell by 0.6% compared than in the preceding three months.

ELSEWHERE

• The euro started the morning well as investors decided to take a ‘risk on’ stance because headway was made in negotiations over the Eurozone debt crisis, EURUSD rose to $1.3482
• German Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkosy have agreed to restructure the way private sector involvement in Eurozone debt is handled and announced a plan to keep a tighter rein on member state’s finances to avoid spiralling debt issues in the future.
• The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) plans have been moved forward, the fund should be in place by the end of 2012, 6 months early than previously expected.
• The plans will be put to vote at the European Union meeting in Brussels at the end of this week and hopefully will pave the way to finalising the crisis without a breakdown in the euro.
• Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti announces a €30bn austerity package plan to cut debt. The markets responded positively to the announcement, Italian 10 bond yields fell below 6% for the first time since October.  
• Despite the positive start to the day, risk aversion was given a big knock in the afternoon as credit ratings agency S&P put 15 countries within the Eurozone on CreditWatch, this includes all Triple A rated nations and caused EURUSD to lose the mornings gains and finish at $1.3382. German and France despite leading the way on the negotiations were included and have been given a 50/50 chance of being downgraded within 90 days.
• The first of the Central Bank interest rates decisions this week was published overnight with Australia cutting interest rates by 0.25% to bring them down to 4.25%, the move was largely expected and has no significant effects.  

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Eurozone Q3 GDP figures are released at 10.00, this is the final print and the markets are expecting the figure to remain at 0.2% as seen in the previous release.
• At 11.00am German Factory Orders are published, after a disappointing -4.3% released in September, analysts are expecting a much better 1.0% for November.
• Building permits are released in Canada at 1.30pm
• The Bank of Canada decide on their interest rates at 2.00pm, they are expected to remain on hold at 1.0%
• Again in Canada at 3000pm is the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for November will gives an indication of business condition in Canada.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE UK

• Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s biggest government controlled bank posted bigger then estimated declines in Q3 profit as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis erodes revenue from its securities unit.
• Bank of England may pause bond buying program after reactivating it last month as officials continue to monitor the Eurozone debt crisis before making their next move
• Sterling reached a session high of €1.1661 against the euro from the early morning low of €1.1545.
• Against the dollar the pound traded between the high of $1.6044 and the low of $1.5946.
• This morning in the UK, surprisingly good house prices data was published showing a rise in October of 1.2% from a fall of -0.5% in September. The pound remains slightly up on most currencies from Friday’s close.

ELSEWHERE

• The euro fell across the board on Friday after the G20 leaders failed to agree to a funding plan to support European government’s recent efforts to manage the regions debt crisis. Markets have been dominated recently by the G20 and news developing from Europe and this has resulted in a lack of risk appetite within investors.
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel commented on Friday that leaders failed to agree on IMF resources to help the regions efforts to control the debt crisis. They have agreed a plan to put in place to bolster the economic growth.
• In a G20 closing press conference French President Nicolas Sarkozy said “we will fight to defend Europe and the euro”. He said the G20 had agreed to boost the resources of the IMP and would agree on the specific steps by February. France failed to persuade the rest of the G20 to commit hard numbers to providing a bigger financial safety net for the Eurozone.
• As Greece’s status in the Eurozone looked questionable last week, Ireland and Portugal say they will do whatever it takes to remain part of the single currency
• The Canadian dollar declines after a report showed the unemployment rate in Canada rose in October to 7.3% from 7.1% as the nation eliminated positions for those searching for jobs.
• The Swiss franc weakened after the nation’s central bank reported foreign currency holdings fell to 242.7 billion francs in October from 282.2 billion francs at the end of September.
• The US dollar rose against 14 of its 16 most traded currency partners after the US unemployment rate fell to 9.0% which is a 6 month low from the previous months release of 9.1% whilst Nonfarm payrolls expanded less then forecasts coming in at 80k against expectations of 95k.
• Last night Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agrees to step down to allow the creation of a national unity government intended to secure international funding and avert a collapse of the country’s economy.
• Asian shares struggle earl Monday as investors are nervous despite the agreement of a formation of a new Greek unity government.
• The Italian prime minister is coming under increasing pressure to step aside after contagion pushed Italy’s borrowing costs to a record high. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• Eurozone finance ministers face a tough assignment at their meeting today. Political developments in Greece and Italy overshadowed the G20 meeting, constraining any real progress on the October 26 EZ rescue plan.
• Investors will be looking at Italian bond auctions today to see how much Italian debt is rising by. 6% is seen as the key figure to show whether or not debt is considered too high, currently Italian bonds are trading at 6.6% and rising and because of political instability, Italy is under pressure to restore its credibility on financial markets.
• Eurozone Retails sales are released at 10am, expectations we are to see a fall of -0.5% which although still showing fall would be an improvement on last month’s 01.0%
• Germany releases industrial production data at 11am. 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

There was a quiet day on the data front yesterday with analysts stating a lack of UK data meant the

markets were mainly driven by movements in risk appetite.

Sterling fell against a broadly stronger euro after French and German leaders promised to put a firm

plan in place to recapitalise Europe’s banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President

Nicolas Sarkozy offered no details of their plans but they pledged to do what was necessary to

support the banks, settle the Greek debt crisis and help growth within the euro zone, which resulted

in an increase to risk sentiment within the markets.

The pound fell from the early morning high of €1.1607 against the euro to end the session trading

near the low of €1.1453, a fall of over 1.4%.

Sterling performed better against a struggling dollar as it moved from the low of $1.5544 to end the

session trading near the high of $1.5683. This was mainly due to an advance in global stocks which

reduced demand for the greenback as a safe haven.

Sterling has recovered from the lows seen last Thursday after the Bank of England increased their

asset buying programme by £75 billion pounds a move which initially was seen as sterling negative

but now has been seen as a positive to stimulate the UK’s economy.

"Normally more QE would be negative for a currency, but given most of the major central banks are

contemplating more easing themselves, it's not weighing on the pound as much this time around,"

said Derks.

"The market is coming back to the view that a country taking affirmative steps to resolve its

problems is supportive for a currency," said the head of dealing for corporate and

institutional treasury at Investec.

IN THE UK

• Sterling fell sharply against a broadly stronger euro falling over 1.4% to end the session at a low of €1.1452.
• The pound gains against the dollar as investors move away from safe haven currencies and return to riskier assets reaching a session high of $1.5688.
• Analysts state that a lack of UK data meant the pounds moves were largely driven by swings in risk appetite.
• The negative sentiment towards the BoE’s shock increase to QE last Thursday is wearing off and is now seen as a positive to the pound.
• Bank of England policy member Martin Weale states on Sunday that there is still room for more QE, as Britain’s economy struggles in the face of fiscal austerity and the deepening on the euro zones debt crisis.

ELSEWHERE

• The euro performs well as Sarkosy and Merkel’s plans are digested, between them Germany and France promise to put a plan in place to recapitalise Europe’s banks, settle the Greek debt crisis and help growth in Europe.
• The details of this plan will not be released until the end of October.
• The euro rose by the largest daily gains in more than a year against the dollar moving from the low of 1.3392 to trade at the high of 1.3698 a movement of over 2.4%.
• France breathes a sigh of relief as Moody’s and S&P confirmed their AAA rating with stable outlook.
• Slovakia is the last member state of the EU left to vote on of the EFSF, their government meet today, most expects expect them to follow suit and vote for an approval of the new terms.
• UK media this morning report that Spain is unlikely to meet its deficit target, the Spanish economy is far too big to simply bailout and if this prediction is correct it will provide another much larger headache for European Finance Officials.
• Greek Finance Minister says Greek haircut more likely to be around 60% rather than the previously agreed level of 21% in July

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times UK BST)

• This morning UK Manufacturing Production figures are released expectations are to see an increase of 0.1% MoM the same rise seen in July.
• UK Industrial Production is also expected to increase to 0.4% MoM following Julys 0.2% fall, which could support the pound.
• In the US they release the budget balance data this evening at 7pm which is expected the see the US fed budget deficit move to $1.294trn for the 2011 fiscal year.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.