Northern Rock

QROPS update 20th December 2011 Pension drawdown & QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

IN THE UK

 

• The Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin was held yesterday and confirmed the gloomy outlook for the UK economy. Unemployment has remained higher than before the recession, and credit conditions are still tight.

 

• The pressure on household finances intensified in December, with new figures showing the squeeze is now heading towards the record levels recorded in August.  Britain's recovery from the recession of 2009 has been slowed by falling consumption "reflecting the challenging environment facing  households".

 

• Data showed 56% of households reported a fall in deposable income in the last 12 months whilst only 13% saw a rise.

 

• UK Chancellor, George Osborne, believes the economy will grow 0.9% this year and just 0.7% in 2012. This figure has been revised downwards twice in the last 12 months. He announced new regulations covering UK banking. Very simply, retail and investment banking will be separated within banking institutions to help avoid the problems seen in 2008 when Northern Rock, RBS, Lloyds and HBOS hit the headlines.

 

• Yesterday’s news was not all bad as Dr Howard Archer, chief UK economist IHS said November's dip in inflation to 4.8% from a three-year high of 5.2% in September should mark a step in a substantial downward trend that will increasingly ease the squeeze on purchasing power.

 

• Rating agency Fitch cut several big name banks including UK based Barclays.  Concern about the UK's heavy exposure to the banking industry is likely to put pressure on the pound as trading winds down towards the year end.

 

ELSEWHERE

 

• The Euro lost further ground after Draghi admitted the law prevents him from extending the euro bond purchase programme further.

 

• Eurozone sovereign associated risk remains unchanged, the ECB’s new head told the EU parliament that purchases of peripheral debt were temporary and "not infinite”.  He was also downbeat on the region’s growth prospects, saying that 2012 will be a difficult year for the Eurozone's banks and that recovery in economic activity is likely to be slow.

 

• Following several days of intense speculation of forthcoming rating cuts, Fitch has placed France under a negative rating outlook for a possible downgrade The rating agency explains that the country has the highest structural budget deficit and more debt than its peers. This negative outlook means that there is more than a 50% chance that France will lose its triple-A rating over the next two years.

 

• Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, Cyprus, and Italy were placed under credit watch negative. These countries already had a negative rating outlook so the new warnings have put their ratings at more risk. Fitch said it will reach its conclusion in January and the cut could be of one or two notches.

 

• Pressure is mounting on Spain after the latest set of disappointing figures were released yesterday. The bad loans rate for the Spanish financial sector rose to 7.416% in October. Overall, €131.908bn in loans were more than three months overdue and October's rate was the highest since November 1994.

 

• Markets opening was mixed on Monday, as news that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died of a heart-attack circulated the markets. Although his son is expected to succeed him, the news has South Korea's military and other countries on alert at the wait for the succession to be confirmed. Asian stocks reacted with general losses.  The South Korean Kospi fell more than 5% while Japan's Nikkei fell 1.26%.

 

• The US Dollar rose off the back of the uncertainty versus the majors and the South Korean Won. This news has unleashed some rumours about the relationship between the two Koreas, ranging from the possibility of new confrontations to a possible unification.

 

• Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest contributor had promising IFO figures released this morning, all 3 components showed healthy rises. Possibly the most important European data release of the week shows that Germany is still performing well.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

 

• CBI Distributive Trade Survey is released at 11.00am in the UK, an indicator of trends in the retail and wholesale sector. The markets are expected a slight improvement from last month’s -19% to -17%

 

• Canadian inflation figures are released at 12.00pm, both annual CPI and Core CPI are expected to show rises to 2.2% and 2.9% respectively.

 

• US Building Permits are released at 1.30pm and expected to show the number of permits dropped slightly in Nov, however actual Housing Starts is expected to have risen in Nov.

 

• New Zealand Current Account Information is expected to show net flow of cash has

dropped significantly into the red, -$3.755bn from -$0.92bn last month.

 

 

 

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

20th December 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

DKK

NOK

HKD

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.5575

 

1.1944

1.5619

1.6105

1.4558

8.8779

9.2090

12.1170

10.71

12.95

121.284

USD

 

0.761

1.0028

1.0340

0.9347

5.7001

5.9127

7.78

6.88

8.31

77.871

EUR

1.3036

 

1.3077

1.3484

1.2189

7.4329

7.7101

10.14

8.97

10.84

101.544

 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

 

QROPS update 9th March 2011 Pension Foreign exchange QROPS and QNUPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

 

Economic data was thin on the ground yesterday, however more significant data release is still to come this week, starting with Goods Trade Balance at 09.30.

In the UK we had RICS house price data earlier which showed that things outside London remain tough for the housing market. The effect of government spending cuts have not been fully realised yet and it could be a long time before regions beyond London and the South East can see any uplift in activity.

GBP/USD was flat to lower at around 1.6140 the bears were targeting 1.6110 and 1.6090 whereas the bulls held out for a test of near term resistance seen around 1.6240, which was previously support and the 1.6300 area.

 

GBP/EUR traded range-bound without any significant direction.

 

EUR/USD dipped slightly yesterday to sub 1.39 where there was some support expected but it was thought that a move lower might open up 1.3885 and 1.3835. To the upside the 1.4015 to 1.4040 area is seen as resistance and then 1.4100.

The Dollar was boosted by reports that more countries may step in to raise oil production and that Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi may be looking for a way to step down.

Also on Tuesday, a report by a U.S. think tank stated that some Federal Reserve officials are calling for the central bank to drop language saying it expects to keep rates low for an "extended period" in the report to be released after its monetary-policy meeting next month.

Of the limited data out yesterday, official data showed that German factory orders rose “more than expected” in January, amid strong domestic demand.

In the world of commodities Gold suffered from the return to the dollar yesterday and swiftly rejected its highs after hitting another record above 1440.

Today in the UK we have the Goods Trade Balance announcements out at 09.30with the consensus expecting to see gains up to £-8.500B.

 

Summary:

 

IN THE UK

  • RICS housing survey shows prices outside London continue to fall.
  • The pound remained fairly range bound against the euro, peaking at high of €1.1641 and a low of €1.1579
  • Against the US dollar trading was fairly flat, dropping half a cent during the session to end at $1.6150
  • Northern Rock announces this morning it made a £232m loss in 2010
  • This morning the UK Trade Balance narrows to -£7.057bn, better than expected and the pound sees marginal gains so far.

 

ELSEWHERE

  • Euro rally falters as debt problems in periphery nations worry investors again, EUR/USD falls to $1.3851
  • German Factory Orders rises to 2.9%, above consensus of 2.5% but the news does little to lift the euro.
  • The dollar was helped as OPEC confirms more countries are able to up production to meet demand.
  • As US and UK talk about “no fly zone” in Libya, we will test yesterday’s comments about how risk aversion is no longer the key currency mover.

 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

  • At 10.00am German Industrial Production paints a picture of Germany’s manufacturing conditions; a rise to 1.8% is expected.
  • US MBA Mortgage Applications, the previous figure was -6.5% as applications fall, if this rises the dollar may see slight gains.
  • RBA Governor Glenn Stevens addresses an Australian business lunch in Europe; investors will look for any comments that may reveal the central banks stance moving forward.
  • US Treasury’s Geithner speaks this evening at 6.30pm, again his comments will be scrutinised for clues on upcoming policies.
  • New Zealand policymakers decide on interest rates at 8.00pm, they are expected to drop to 2.75% to help economy after recent earthquake.  
  • 4th  quarter GDP figures are released in Japan at 11.50pm

 

Current Spot Rates (9.00am)

9th March 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

EUR

AUD

CAD

CHF

SEK

ZAR

JPY

GBP

1.6157

1.1651

1.6017

1.5688

1.5082

10.26

11.15

133.904

USD

 

1.3861

0.9913

0.9710

0.9335

6.35

6.90

82.877

 

 Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

5th August 2010 Pension Foreign Exchange Report QROPS & QNUPS

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.    

The recent run of strong UK data has seen sterling make gains across the board over the last couple of weeks. Yet this run seemed to ground to a halt as the UK saw a weaker than expected reading of the UK services sector, it highlights the UK economy may struggle to match the growth it achieved in the first half of the year. The official reading grew in July at its slowest rate in 13 months achieving a reading of 53.1 from 54.4 in June.

The pound reached a day high of €1.2081 up from the low of €1.2041 against the euro.

Against the dollar sterling reached a session high of $1.5962 just down on the 6 month high of $1.5968 achieved on Tuesday but was still up for the session low of $1.5863. The dollar is still under broad selling pressure over the ongoing concerns of the US economy’s recovery especially after speculation we may see the Federal Reserve take further steps to try to lower borrowing costs. But many analysts believe there is a key resistance level at $1.5968 and we may see sterling struggle to push through that level into the $1.60’s.

The pound also found support from a rise in UK house prices which were up 0.6% in July and showing a recovery from the fall we saw in June. The recent reports from some of the major UK banks have all lifted sterling’s outlook with many banks reporting substantial profits on the half year; these banks include Lloyds, HSBC and Northern Rock. These are all positive signs for the UK as a country we are heavily reliant on the banking sector.

Elsewhere the US saw some positive non manufacturing data which came in at 54.3 higher then expectations of 53.8, this was followed by better than expected employment data which came in at 42k against the previous figure of 13k, this helped the dollar make gains against sterling in the afternoon session as it re traced some of its losses by 0.5%.

In the euro zone retail sales were released for both Month on month and Year on year for June. The reading came in lower at 0.0% against the last reading of 0.4% the Year on year figure fared better coming in at 0.4% against expectations of 0.1%.

All eyes will be on the Bank of England’s two day monetary policy meeting which started yesterday, today they will release their interest rate decision with many believing we will still see a hold of interest rates are the current record low of 0.5% (confirmed). What will be of interest is to whether any other policy makers agree with Andrew Sentence into voting for a rate increase to 0.75%.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

 

4th August 2010 Pension Foreign Exchange Report QROPS & QNUPS

We continue our daily look at factors affecting currencies allowing some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.  

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. Things are still very volatile and we are in unique global influencing territory.  In conjunction with investment returns, currency exchange continues to concern many expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS.    

Sterling rose to a 6 month high against the dollar yesterday, as recent positive economic data and strong banking figures increased appetite for the pound.

Major Bank HSBC, recorded profits of £7bn through the first half of 2010, and even so called ‘bad bank’ Northern Rock made a £167m profit compared to a £243m loss this time last year. This is all hugely positive for the UK economy and sterling, as a major part of outside investment into the UK, is determined by the performance of the banking sector.

The banking profits along with the recent positive 2nd quarter GDP figures and strong manufacturing data have helped rally sterling over the past few weeks, and after concerns about the US economy slowing and possibility for further monetary easing by the US Fed, sterling rose to a 6 month high $1.5968.

Sterling is pushing close to the $1.60 level; this level is deemed to have a strong psychological barrier, and as analysts believe that there are many options barriers around this level it will take some fresh impetus to breach this level.

Against the euro sterling pushed close to €1.21 reaching a day high of €1.2088, but dropped slightly across the board after UK Construction Purchasing Managers Index fell to a four month low of 54.1 in July, from 58.4 the previous month. This is usually a well overlooked figure but given the 0.4% addition to last month’s GDP figures from construction alone, this was seen as an important indicator of future results.

By the close of UK trading sterling was trading at around $1.5930 still 0.3% up on the day, and was down a fraction trading around $1.2039 against the euro.

Investors await the results from today’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which is expected to maintain its growth above the 50.0 growth level. Last month’s figure came in at 54.4.

Euro zone retail figures for June are released today at 10.00am, the euro continued to gain against the dollar reaching a 3 month high $1.3262 after the US Fed’s earlier announcement.

Analysts are now trying to get an indication as to who will increase their interest rates first. The US were expected to be the first but look the least likely after the Fed’s announcements but markets have seen shocks in the past. So any hints from policymakers will be sure to have an effect on investor bets. The Bank of England monetary policy decision is on Thursday, but the main focus will be on the quarterly outlook view, which will be released next week.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pensions, investments, currency exchange and guidance on taxation in most popular ‘sunnier’ climates.   This with the re-assurance and security of UK authorised and regulated advice – essential tools for your security.

Managing Cash and Fixed Interest Deposits

Traditionally a cash deposit was seen as a no risk investment. Perhaps the only risk being attributed to the effects of inflation reducing the capital buying power. 

The considerable differences between money market funds were brought to light recently, when a number of investors using the vehicles as a shelter from the tumultuous markets saw their cash assets tumble in value.  

The most high profile fund to hit the headlines was the Standard Life Pension Sterling fund. Investors say they were led to believe this was a pure cash fund, therefore providing a lower-risk investment. It was, in fact, using more complex instruments exposed to the weakening American mortgage market, and the fund dropped in value quite dramatically in January.  

Floating rate notes (FRNs) and asset-backed securities were introduced to the portfolio without the risks being explained to investors.

Prior to the announcement of the reduction in value on January 14, the fund held over £2 billion in assets and had nearly 100,000 investors. These investors were told that, owing to exposure to mortgage-backed securities, the fund’s unit price was to be diminished by 4.8%, wiping off £100m of its total value.  

A statement released on February 11 said: “We have listened to feedback and the concerns of our customers … and have decided to put customers back in the position they would have been before the valuation adjustment on 14 January 2009 ... some customers would not have expected the value of their units to fall by this extent in one day, based on the information we provided on the nature of the fund.”  

After admitting there was insufficient information available on the risk level of the fund, Standard Life pumped in £100m of its own money and recompensed customers who had left the fund after the adjustment was announced. 

Money market funds saw huge inflows in 2008. Equities were plummeting, bonds were not doing much better and interest rates were high – around the 5% mark for most of the year.

Cash was king. Figures from the Investment Management Association (IMA) show that over £242m (net) was pumped into the Money Market sector for the calendar year of 2008, with a monthly peak reached in July when inflows were £55m. 

Most investors use the vehicles as income producers, particularly during periods of high interest rates or as safe havens from falling markets, because placing cash in a variety of bank or building society accounts is perceived to be lower risk than investing in the stock or bond markets. Others might use money market funds because they offer a way to access cash quickly, and those approaching retirement commonly begin to switch their pension pot out of riskier equities or bonds in favour of lower risk options.  

So, what went so wrong with the FRNs and asset-backed securities last year that caused the losses in the first place?  

The problems began at the start of the credit crunch, in August 2007, when the enormous amount of debt consumers and corporates had taken on began to unwind. The institutions providing asset-backed securities were themselves rated AAA, but the underlying holdings – loans, mortgages and other types of debt – were lent to borrowers of a subprime nature. As times became difficult for the borrowers of this debt, defaults on payments began to rise. But the real problem was the lack of confidence in the market, which caused capital values to plummet. Investor confidence in the banks weakened further, as the likes of Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers sought government help or went bust, leading to a severe plummet in FRN values in the autumn of 2008.  

Standard Life’s fund was not the only one involved in the more complex cash instruments. In the IMA’s Money Market sector, Threadneedle’s UK Money Securities fund suffered the largest fall. For the year to June 11, 2009, the fund declined by 21.44%, compared with a peer group average gain of 0.7%, according to Morningstar.  

Just over a year ago, in April, 2008, the fund sat on £472m in assets but this has since plummeted to £146.3m.  

The manager attributes the performance falls to depressed values in FRNs, which amounted to 28.3% of the portfolio at the end of April, but were as high as 40% in September  2007.  

However, he defends his decision to invest in FRNs in the first place, because prior to the credit crunch he says they “typically traded at or close to par and were subject to narrow dealing spreads” and that their asset backing was considered a strength.  

Many managers perceived them to be low risk and liquid instruments pre-credit crunch.

The M&G High Interest fund was another money market vehicle that has suffered losses in the past year, falling by 5.71%. 

Other funds that saw significant losses over the one-year time-frame include F&C Sterling Enhanced Cash (which fell 10.72%), and Prudential’s Maximum Income Trust (which fell 4.62%), which is managed by M&G.  

Yet, some funds in the sector managed to beat the peer group average return, despite interest rates radically reducing in those 12 months. At the top of the sector is the Premier UK Money Market fund, which gained 4.07%. The manager says the outperformance is down to holding “plain vanilla, liquid assets” and calling the money curve correctly.  

Future categorization:  

The proposal is to leave the Money Market sector unchanged, but create a new sector with a “cash-like” definition – funds here will not be “no risk” as they are still exposed to credit and liquidity risk, but they will be lower risk than those funds that invest in other money market instruments. However, the ABI did express a concern that there is a possibility that the returns may not exceed the charges levied, especially in a low interest rate environment.

Nonetheless, the new sector name will either be Capital Stability Fund or Treasury and Deposit Fund. 

The IMA also released a statement to say it is reviewing its Money Market sector to coincide with what is happening at a European level, as well as the ABI’s review, and is considering whether to add a “cash like” sector.  

The IMA, says this will harmonise the sectors alongside the ABI’s and ensure customers understand what they are buying. However, there are only a small number of funds in the sector (32) and this will be considered in the review, which the Performance Category and Review Committee (PCRC) is likely to conclude in the summer.  

 

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