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At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

IN THE <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />UK

• Sterling gained against a broadly weaker euro on Monday, ahead of an EU summit in Brussels, with investors cautious as talks continued between Greece and private creditors on a debt swap deal.  The pound pushed up from a day low 1.1901 to a day high 1.1974.
• Sterling fell against the dollar, tracking falls in EURUSD after a run of gains that have taken the pound above $1.57 from below $1.54 in mid-January. Traders and analysts saw levels above $1.57 as a good opportunity to take profit on those gains, which sterling fall to a day low 1.5654. 
• Sterling may come under pressure later this week if purchasing managers' surveys (PMIs) for January on the manufacturing, construction and services sectors add to the picture of a weakening economy and increase the prospect of more monetary easing from the Bank of England.
• Overnight GFK Consumer confidence gave Sterling a boost, as the figure showed an improvement to -29 in December, from -33 in November.  Sterling moved up from 1.5700 to 1.5774, its highest since November 21st after the data release.

ELSEWHERE

• EU chiefs arrived in Brussels yesterday to put the finishing touches on a German-led deficit-control treaty and to endorse the statutes of a 500 billion-euro ($656 billion) rescue fund to be set up this year.
• European finance officials began discussions on Sunday that a deal that Greece and its private creditors expect to complete in the coming days, after bondholders signalled they would accept government demands for a bigger cut in their debt holdings.
• European leaders failed to finalise Greece’s second aid programme because talks with banks over debt reduction aren’t completed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.  The Euro fell from a day high 1.3185  to 1.3076 against the dollar as investors sought safe haven currencies
• German Consumer Price Index figure for January showed a negative figure compared to December.  The -0.4% was down from 0.7% in December, but was slightly better than the estimated -0.5% expected.
• This morning German retail sales were significantly down, the figure was expected to be a positive 0.8%, however Decembers figure showed a -1.4% decline which was worse than the -1% recorded in November.
• US stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third day, as European leaders sparred with Greece over a second rescue program.  Some investors believe “The question isn’t whether or not Europe goes into a recession, but how deep that recession is going to be,”
• An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation euro area rose to 93.4 from a revised 92.8 in December, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the first increase since February 2011, though it’s less than the median prediction of 93.8.
• The yen strengthened against all of its major counterparts as concern increased Greek bailout negotiations will hinder efforts to resolve the financial crisis, boosting demand for haven assets.  The yen appreciated 1.2 percent to 100.15 per euro at 10:08 a.m. in New York and touched 99.99, the lowest level since Jan. 23.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR (all times GMT)

• At 10.00am European Unemployment rate is expected to show a slight increase from 10.3% in November to 10.4% in December.
• At 3.00pm US Consumer Confidence figures for January are expected to show an improvement from 64.5 in December to 68.0

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension income drawdown, flexible pensions or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension drawdown, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, income drawdown now including flexible pensions, a QROPS and QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Tuesday saw the euro fall across the board, as weak German and euro-zone growth data

sparked concerns about a potential slowdown, damping risk appetite and boosting demand

for the safe-haven Swiss franc, yen and dollar.

Data showed Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 0.1% in the

second quarter, which was way below forecasts of 0.5%. On release of this, the euro

was pushed down more than 1% against the Swiss franc.

The euro zone’s GDP data showed the region’s economy grew by just 0.2% over the

same period, adding to pessimism over the currency block, already struggling with a

sovereign debt crisis which is only escalating. These concerns are likely to make investors

rather wary of the euro in the coming days.

The leaders of France, President Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel,

were under pressure to show financial markets they are in agreement on doing more to

shore up the embattled currency union, or risk watching the euro zone unravel.

They had previously planned to meet this week to push ahead on their July 21 pledge to

come up with new proposals on euro zone economic governance, but the stakes were raised

when France was slammed in last week’s global market rout.

In early New York trading, the euro was down 0.4% versus the dollar at $1,43830,

with support around the $1.43511 level.

The pound pared losses against the US dollar, easing off the daily low after stronger than

expected UK inflation data prompted Mervyn King, the Bank of England Governor, to say the

central bank could raise rates to bring down inflation.

The UK Office for National Statistics said earlier that the rate of consumer price inflation

accelerated to 4.4% in July from 4.2% in June, above expectations for a 4.3% increase.

Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco costs increased by a seasonally

adjusted 3.1% in July, broadly in line with expectations and up from 2.8% in June.

Over in the United States, the number of building permits issued fell more than expected in

July, official data showed.

In a report, the US Census Bureau said the number of building permits issued in July fell

3.2% to a seasonally adjusted 0.60 million, down from 0.62 million in June. Analysts had

expected a decline of 1.9% to 0.61 million in July.

US Housing starts also fell 1.5% in July to hit a seasonally adjusted 0.60 million, broadly in

line with expectations.

IN THE UK

• UK Consumer Price Index accelerates to 4.4% in July, up from 4.2% in June and beats expectations for a 4.3% increase.
• Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, hints at potential hike in rates to curb inflation and didn’t rule out further QE.
• GBP/EUR hits a low of 1.1331 and a high of 1.1411 and GBP/USD hits a low of 1.6322 and a high of 1.6430

ELSEWHERE

• Euro falls across the board on the back of weak German and Eurozone growth data, sparking concerns about a slowdown and damping risk appetite
• Germany’s GDP growth slows to 0.1 percent in the second quarter, less than a forecasted 0.5 percent.
• GDP data from the euro zone showed the region’s economy grew by a mere 0.2 percent over the same period (second quarter).
• US Housing starts fell 1.5% in July to hit a seasonally adjusted 0.60 million, in line with expectations
• US building permits fell more than expected in July, by 3.2% to an adjusted 0.60 million, down from 0.62 million in June. Forecasts were for a decline of 1.9 percent to 0.61 million.
• In Australia, minutes of the RBA’s meeting on the 2nd August, showed that policy makers extended a pause on interest rates due to global growth concerns.
• Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy call for ‘true economic governance’ after their meeting to help combat the spiraling debt in the Eurozone.

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR 

• All eyes on the UK and Bank of England minutes, due out at 09.30am. Will there be more policy makers in favour of either a rate hike or further QE, after CPI figures yesterday showed an increase to 4.4%.
• Also out at this time, is the UK Jobless Claims Change. Have unemployment benefits jumped or will it show UK labour market is gaining strength??
• 10.00am we will be open to the Core CPI figure from the Euro zone, expected to come out at 2.5%, still above their target level of 2%
• Over in America, at 1330pm, we will see the release of the July Producer Price Index, an early indication of inflation, as this measures the changes in the selling prices, producers charge for goods and services.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises UK residents, expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, pension income drawdown, flexible pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

The pound lost ground against the euro on Friday after stronger than expected German and

French growth data bolstered the single currency, whilst sterling continued to hover near

the three week low against the dollar.

Sterling moved from the session high of €1.145 to hit the low of €1.1361, against the dollar

the pound fell from the day’s high of $1.6308 to end the day’s trading near the low of

$1.6183.

The strong data out of Germany and France (the two biggest economies in the euro zone)

raised expectations that the European central bank will raise rates again before the Bank of

England will; this is even though there are on-going concerns over the euro zone peripheral

debt. Markets have priced in a further rate hike for the euro zone in July whilst the UK have

now fully priced a rate hike at the end of the year.

Sterling had gained against the euro earlier this week reaching €1.1530 as interest rate

differentials between the UK and the euro zone narrowed after euro zone peripheral worries

overtook market sentiment and some investors interpreted the Bank of England's inflation

report as hawkish.

The recent poor data from the UK continued after industrial output came out a lot weaker

then expected on Thursday and the National Institute of Economic and social research said

economic growth in the UK slowed to 0.3% in the three months to April from 0.5% in the

three months to March.

The pound has lost ground against the dollar this week after a steep sell off in commodity

prices prompted investors to rush towards the relative safe haven of the dollar and the yen.

IN THE UK

• The pound falls against the euro on Friday morning after stronger than expected German and French growth data.
• Sterling hovers near a 3 week low of $1.6183 as investors move to the safe haven currencies of the dollar and yen.
• Late on Friday during the US session, the pound makes gains against a struggling euro, breaking the €1.15 showing a 1.5 cent swing from low and high of the day. 

ELSEWHERE

• On Friday morning, data shows the collective Eurozone GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1 of 2011.
• GDP figure is mainly down to Germany’s 1.5% growth and France’s 1.0%.
• However it highlighted the struggling countries such as Italy which only grew by 0.1% and Spain which grew by only 0.3%.
• The release also showed Portugal sliding back into recession after contracting for a 2nd consecutive quarter.
• Over the weekend, IMF head Strauss-Kahn is charged with attempted rape.
• This morning the euro falls to a 6 week low against the dollar of $1.4050 as concerns mount that Greece will have to restructure its debt and EU Finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to discuss additional bailout funds for Greece, Germany demand deeper budget cuts
• US consumer prices rose in April by 0.4% slightly below the previous month’s release. 

DATA TO LOOK OUT FOR

• At 10am the Eurozone releases Consumer Price Index for April. The CPI could help the euro following on from Friday’s GDP data. CPI remaining high would heighten the argument to raise interest rates again.  
• Also released at 10.00am is Eurozone Trade Balance, the positive balance is expected to narrow slightly to €1.7B.
• 1.30pm the US release Empire State Manufacturing for May, this looks at the state of manufacturing in New York, generally a high figure helps the US dollar, but this month’s figure is expected to drop to 21.3 from 21.7 last month
• At 2pm the Fed’s Ben Bernanke speaks. 

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.